If only punters could get it right! Mere hours after Gordon Elliott referred to Delta Work as “a forgotten horse” it was the turn of Robbie Power to claim that Lostintranslation was not getting enough love in the Gold Cup conversation. Power compared him to Sizing John, who he rode to Cheltenham glory in the 2017 race in defiance of pre-race fears about unproven stamina.
“He’s coming in, a little like Sizing John, under the radar because people didn’t think Sizing John was going to stay,” Power told a gathering of racing media at Punchestown on Tuesday. “Now they’ve kind of written off Lostintranslation a bit as well. People have been watching Delta Work and other horses and we’re going to slip in nicely under the radar hopefully.”
We know from similar quotes in the past that “under the radar” is the ideal place to be if you are a professional athlete approaching a major competition. So acute is their knowledge of where the radar is that the secret services should really be looking to recruit from the ranks of sportsmen and women.
As it happens, Delta Work is third in betting on the Gold Cup while Lostintranslation is fourth, but there is no harm in Elliott and Power convincing themselves that external expectations are low for their horses. At least one of them is going to be disappointed on 13 March, after all, and perhaps this kind of thinking will make it easier to bear.
Power had some good points to make about Lostintranslation and suggested putting a line through his King George flop on the grounds that it came too soon after his Betfair Chase success. “We do forget sometimes, with these staying chasers, how much a race can take out of them.
“I know how good his form is around the New Course in Cheltenham. He was second to Defi Du Seuil in the JLT there and he beat Defi in the Dipper on that track as well. The only thing I’d be hoping for is some nice ground on the Friday.” Lostintranslation has had a wind operation since Boxing Day, another reason why he may surprise some.
Meanwhile, Davy Russell evidently feels the public tends to overstate the chance of his Gold Cup mount, Presenting Percy, and is unsure the horse can improve on the level he showed when third in the Irish Gold Cup. “People say ‘That’s a lovely run-up to Cheltenham,’ but he was fairly ready to rock and roll in Leopardstown,” Russell told reporters. “That’s his form. I don’t know if there was a whole load left in the locker.”
Cheltenham Festival stat of the day, by Paul Ferguson
Willie Mullins boasts an enviable record in the Mares Hurdle, especially with French-bred mares. Nine of the 12 winners were French-bred from just 20% representation, so they are clearly over-performing in this sphere (as they do in the Mares Novice Hurdle). This statistic pointed punters towards 2018 winner Benie des Dieux, who would have won this race again last year but for a final-flight fall. She looks one of the more rock-solid favourites of the week, in trends terms, should this end up being her chosen target.
The Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2020, written by Paul Ferguson, is published this week and available through this link for £15.95.
A Cheltenham Festival stat of the day will appear here from Monday to Friday for the next three weeks.
Wednesday’s best bets
Paul Nicholls delivered an even-money winner for Tuesday’s nap and the Ditcheat trainer is flying along just now, having scored with his last four runners. Hopefully Southfield Harvest (4.05) can keep the ball rolling at 11-8 or so in a maiden hurdle at Ludlow.
Closely related to the high-class trio Southfield Theatre, Southfield Vic and Southfield Royale, ‘Harvest’ won a bumper in April, beating Stolen Silver, who has since become a Grade Two winner over hurdles. Southfield Harvest was beaten on his hurdling debut last month but showed promise in finishing second to a talented, experienced rival.
The third horse has since won a big-field Ascot handicap, so the form looks good. Southfield Harvest ought to come on for that first outing in nine months and know a deal more here. He needs to, as Muckamore is also useful.
At Doncaster, Potters Legend (3.55) gets his most winnable opportunity of the season so far. He didn’t cope with a sterner test at Haydock in December and bled but he is fairly treated when things fall right and odds of 15-2 appeal.
Newcastle’s opener could fall to Liva (2.05), from the Stef Keniry yard that was among the winners on Tuesday. Liva has shown progress on the all-weather since switching yards in the summer and was only beaten half a length when cheekpieces were added to the mix last time. The chestnut is attracting interest at 6-1.
Ludlow
1.55 Night Edition 2.26 Chilli Filli 3.00 Bean In Trouble 3.31 One Style 4.05 Southfield Harvest (nap) 4.40 Oxwich Bay 5.10 Treasure Dillon
Newcastle
2.05 Liva 2.35 Productive 3.10 Glen Shiel 3.40 Lord Of The Lodge 4.15 Merchant Of Venice 4.50 Tathmeen
Doncaster
2.18 Danny Kirwan 2.50 Rath An Iuir 3.23 Allart 3.55 Potters Legend (nb) 4.30 Captain Cattistock 5.02 Adrimel
Kempton
5.30 A Step Too Far 6.00 Dartington 6.30 Claudius Secundus 7.00 Hindaam 7.30 Treacherous 8.00 King’s Slipper 8.30 Agent Of Fortune