(Bloomberg) — Ireland’s election is hanging in the balance after a surge in Sinn Fein’s support upended the nation’s traditional two-party power structure.
Counting began on Sunday, after an exit poll showed a virtual dead heat between Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael as well as the biggest opposition party, Fianna Fail, and Sinn Fein in Saturday’s election.
On Sunday, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail ruled out governing with Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the IRA, which presented itself as a left-wing alternative to the centrist consensus which has largely dominated government since the foundation of the state in the 1920s.
The election represents a “seismic” shift in Irish politics, Sinn Fein’s Housing spokesman Eoin O’Broin tweeted, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fail facing an unprecedented threat to their stranglehold on power. The electoral math of a fragmented system means Sinn Fein is unlikely to lead the next government, but its rise speaks to the shifting tectonic plates that are upending traditional power structures across Europe.
“The exit poll suggests a great degree of fragmentation, which will make government formation very difficult,” according to Eoin O’Malley, a politics professor at Dublin City University. “There’ll have to be significant compromise, and rowing back from election commitments, or else Ireland will be voting again this year.”
Exit Poll
Varadkar’s Fine Gael won 22.4% of votes in Saturday’s election, according to the exit poll, confounding surveys that placed the party in third place before the vote. Sinn Fein won 22.3%, according to the Ipsos/MRBI poll of 5,000 voters, commissioned by RTE and the Irish Times, putting it line for its best-ever performance.
In the 2016 election, the party won 14% of the vote.
Though Sinn Fein is in the race to be the biggest party by vote share, it didn’t run nearly enough candidates to become the dominant force in Ireland’s 160-seat parliament. Fianna Fail, which oversaw the nation’s international bailout in 2010, secured 22.2% in the poll, which has a margin of error of 1.3 percentage points.
It’s clear no party will come close to a majority, meaning Varadkar and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin will have to seek out coalition partners. The party with the most seats will be in prime position to lead the government, with former Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern predicting Fianna Fail will emerge as the biggest party.
A clear picture of the final outcome is expected to emerge late Sunday or by around midday on Monday. The Greens and Labour Party, with a combined 12.5%, are among potential kingmakers.
The traditional divide in Irish politics runs between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, separated by little except where they stood on the division of Ireland in 1921. Both share Brexit policies, broadly agree on economic and fiscal policy and vow to protect the nation’s 12.5% corporate tax rate.
The policy gap with Sinn Fein is “too wide” to form a coalition, Enterprise Minister Heather Humphreys said in an RTE interview on Sunday. Fianna Fail lawmaker Jack Chambers said Martin should stick by his promise to not govern with Sinn Fein, despite some party members suggesting the option should be kept open.
“Our word is our bond,” Chambers said in an RTE interview.
A Fine Gael or Fianna Fail-led government “would largely mean continuity from a financial and economic policy perspective,” said Bert Colijn, an economist with ING Groep NV. “Sinn Fein’s proposed policies would represent a significant move to the left.”
While Sinn Fein’s main historical mission has been to reunite the two parts of the island of Ireland, it has morphed into a broader left of of center party, with a particular focus on housing.
The party will talk to anyone with a “progressive agenda,” O’Broin said. “Sinn Fein’s proposed policies would represent a significant move to the left.
“We are ready for government,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Dara Doyle in Dublin at [email protected];Peter Flanagan in Dublin at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at [email protected], Sara Marley, Michael Hunter
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