Following a storm that dumped torrential rainfall and unleashed deadly severe weather on the South this week, more rounds of wet weather are likely in the coming weeks, which will continue the flood risk for the long term.
Portions of the South that were already saturated from above-normal rainfall in January and a couple of months prior were inundated by an additional 1 to 8 inches of rain in just 24 hours by the storm that hammered the region Wednesday and Thursday.
“Fortunately, storms of equal magnitude compared to the storm that slammed the region this past Wednesday and Thursday are not immediately anticipated,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
“But the pattern is loaded with storms, albeit less intense, that could unleash soaking rainfall and locally heavy thunderstorms through the region every several days,” Pastelok said.
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As many as three storms are likely to affect portions of the South Central and Southeastern states through Feb. 18. Should one of the storms strengthen significantly, then another round of widespread flooding and a severe weather outbreak may unfold.
Following spotty showers sweeping across the region this weekend, a more robust round of downpours is slated to arrive across the South early next week. Rain will first gather across the western Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday before expanding eastward across the Deep South through midweek. The storm may stall and allow rain to pour down for a couple of days straight for some areas.
Already by late Wednesday into Thursday, another area of rain will blossom across the south-central U.S. before it takes aim farther east.
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The storm from this past week’s event has already pushed many rivers out of their banks and into minor and moderate flood stage. Some rivers are expected to reach major flood stage this weekend. These include the Congaree River below Columbia in South Carolina, the Pee Dee River in northern South Carolina, the Cumberland River in southeastern Kentucky and the Neuse River in eastern North Carolina.
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A number of rivers over the south-central and southeastern U.S. may not even crest until next week. After water levels peak, these rivers will then slowly recede. However, many are likely to remain out of their banks until the next round of rain arrives and potentially repeats the flooding process.
Despite a few dry days expected between the bursts of rain, the overall water table will remain high — and it may take much less rain to bring small streams out of their bank than during a typical weather pattern during the middle of February.
Since Nov. 1, 2019, rainfall has ranged from 12 to 24 inches over the interior South. The rain has been one-and-a-half to two-times that of average in cities such as Atlanta; Charlotte, North Carolina; Birmingham, Alabama; and Jackson, Mississippi and Columbia, South Carolina.
Rainfall moving forward into the spring is forecast to remain above average with the ongoing risk of flooding in much of the Southeast.
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