Talking Horses: Altior faces post-defeat day of destiny at Newbury

Altior will approach a crossroads at Newbury on Saturday afternoon, and no one, not even those who devote themselves daily to the task of training, riding and caring for him, can be 100% sure which way he will turn. His 19-race winning streak has, as Tony McCoy always said about his winner-count at the start of a new season, been reset to zero. Unlike McCoy, though, Altior can’t tell us how he feels about starting from scratch.

That will become apparent only when, or if, he comes under some pressure on Saturday. Altior has always been, in the eyes of the stern judges at Timeform, “notably genuine and reliable”. You do not win 19 times in a row, including 10 Grade One races and four at the Cheltenham Festival, if you are anything but.

The race which snapped his streak, though, was one with the potential to make any horse think twice. First time up in the new season, on soft ground and over a new trip three furlongs beyond anything he had tried before, Altior was pitched into a gladiatorial head-to-head with Cyrname, the top-rated chaser in training. It was at Ascot too, which is akin to opting to play Liverpool at Anfield instead of your own home patch, and Nicky Henderson, his trainer, still seems to be regretting it even now.

The form numbers and timefigures for the Christy 1965 Chase in November suggest that both Cyrname and Altior drew the sort of performances from each other that are usually reserved for Cheltenham in March, after several months of steady race-to-race conditioning. To do it first time up is something else entirely, and while Cyrname went on to finish second in the King George in his next race, he was 21 lengths behind Clan Des Obeaux and, again according to Timeform, 30lb below his Ascot form.

Henderson pointed to Cyrname’s below-par run at Kempton earlier this week, while also claiming that Altior went to Ascot in an attempt to prove that he was not just a “boring two-miler”. A quick Google search of ‘Altior’ and ‘boring’ however, suggests that Henderson himself is the only person who has ever used the words together – as in “everybody says it is boring watching him go round over two miles‚” a couple of days before his Ascot defeat.

Altior has had longer to recover from Ascot, as possible engagements at Kempton and back at Ascot came and went amid some high-profile uncertainty about Altior’s readiness for a return to action. But history shows that while some horses have little trouble rediscovering their winning mojo after a long streak of victories is snapped, for others it is much more difficult.

Big Buck’s, who held the record for consecutive wins over jumps until Altior overtook him at Sandown last April, had been off the track for 14 months when he lost for the first time in 19 races at Cheltenham in January 2014. Next time up, in what turned out to be his final race, he was beaten again, in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival.

But Faugheen and the Henderson-trained Buveur D’Air, who both racked up 11-race winning streaks, were winners next time up after defeat – in a Grade One in the case of Faugheen – though neither has ever quite recaptured the air of invincibility that preceded them to the track in their pomp.

Which way will Altior turn at Newbury on Saturday? One thing is certain: it won’t be boring.

Altior’s winning run ended at 19 but what happened in the race after other big names’ streaks ended?

Big Buck’s (18 wins) 

Fifth of 10 in World Hurdle, Ascot 2014

Brigadier Gerard (15)

Won Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, Ascot 1972

Spectacular Bid (12)

Won Allowance Stakes, Pimlico 1979

Faugheen (11)

Won Grade One Hurdle, Kempton 2018

Buveur D’Air (11)

Won Listed Hurdle, Sandown 2019

Nijinsky (11)

Second in Champion Stakes, Newmarket 1970

Saturday’s best bets

The days when the Betfair Hurdle was won by a hardened handicapper or a plot horse seem to be gone for good. The last four winners have all lined up for a Grade One novice hurdle next time out, and with several lightly raced and potentially top-class young horses in the field, this year’s renewal will probably go the same way.

Ciel De Neige and Never Adapt, in the JP McManus colours, are two of the likelier sorts. At the prices, though, Emma Lavelle’s Highly Prized (3.35) has a big each-way chance at around 16-1. Unraced since winning in a strong time at Huntingdon in November, an official rating of 133 gives him an ideal racing weight and he will also appreciate the drying ground.

Newbury 1.50 All nine in this competitive handicap hurdle have a chance on paper, but the Tony Carroll-trained Vive Le Roi could get a relatively easy time of it up front and his nine-length second in the Lanzarote last time looks solid.

Warwick 2.05 Nube Negra and Rouge Vif have both made very promising starts to their chasing careers and could be the two to focus on here. Nube Negra was second in a Grade One contest last time but Rouge Vif ran to a very similar level in the Wayward Lad in December and looks the way to go.

Newury 2.25 Altior has at least a stone in hand of most of his rivals on the official ratings, but is also hard to back with confidence at odds of around 1-2 after a hard race last time. Hopefully, a comfortable win will set up an outstanding Champion Chase next month.

Warwick 2.40 Indefatigable was an expensive flop at Sandown last time and while a return to previous form would give her a big chance, her price makes little appeal. Coded Message, by contrast, has done little wrong this season and was not beaten far in a Grade Two race at Ascot last time.

Newbury 3.00 Might Bite has had a tough time of it since his brilliant duel with Native River in the 2018 Gold Cup and it is hard to see past Colin Tizzard’s popular chaser here.

Warwick 3.15 Two Taffs is lightly raced for a 10-year-old and travelled as well as anything for much of the way in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury on his most recent outing. The drop back in trip here could be just what he needs.

Uttoxeter 12.48 Daphne Du Clos 1.22 Initiative 1.58 Gouet Des Bruyeres 2.32 Echo Watt 3.07 Runasimi River 3.42 Bestiarius 4.17 Lies About Milan 

Warwick
 12.55 Trincomalee 1.30 Sastruga 2.05 Rouge Vif 2.40 Coded Message 3.15 Two Taffs (nb) 3.50 Fortunate George 4.25 Cadzand

Newbury 1.15 L’Air Du Vent 1.50 Vive Le Roi 2.25 Altior 3.00 Native River 3.35 Highly Prized (nap) 4.10 Highest Sun 4.45 Champagnesuperover

Lingfield 1.45 Toro Dorado 2.20 Corazon Espinado 2.55 Mount Wellington 3.30 Will To Win 4.05 Silent Witness 4.40 Queen Constantine 

Wolverhampton 5.00 Caribbean Spring 5.30 Windsorlot 6.00 Chookie Dunedin 6.30 Compensate 7.00 Marcela De Vega 7.30 Canford Bay 8.00 Mickey 8.30 Dream Magic

source: theguardian.com