On February 5 next year, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty will expire after 10 years of implementation. Also referred to as the New START, it is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the US and the Russian Federation. The treaty dictates that the US and Russia reduce their number of nuclear missile numbers in half, limit the amount of intercontinental ballistic missiles launchers and submarines, as well as setting rules on monitoring.
While this deal, signed in April 2010, calmed the nerves of many on the international stage, the US administration’s resistance to the treaty could spark a renewed arms race with Russia.
This is despite the universal advocacy for the deal in Washington, with representatives from both the Democratic and Republican Parties supporting its renewal.
Both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, want to renew the deal, but the White House chief’s ambitions for an even better agreement risk derailing talks entirely.
As the World Politics Review highlights, he wants to see a more expansive treaty, one that covers not only strategic nuclear weapons but also smaller, low-yield “tactical” nuclear weapons.
More ambitiously, he wants to bring China into a new treaty and establish limits on its nuclear arsenal.
This remains an unlikely prospect – China’s inventory of nuclear warheads is just five percent of Washington’s or Moscow’s, so it has no logical incentive to join negotiations.
Should Beijing sign up, it would be locked in a scenario where it would be unable to expand its nuclear arsenal at a time when President Xi Jinping is investing heavily in the country’s military.
Should President Trump remain resolute in his demands beyond the treaty’s expiration, both the US and Russia would suddenly be free to increase its nuclear weapons development.
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This has been described as a potentially “dangerous and misguided” step by international affairs magazine, National Interest.
This will cause even more concern in Washington due to Moscow’s development of the colossal Tsirkon Hypersonic Missile.
While some details surrounding the weapon are subject to speculation among experts, President Putin confirmed that the missile was under development and also shared some chilling details about its capabilities.
Putin said last February: “This is a hypersonic missile called Tsirkon. It will have the speed of mach 9, it has a range of 1,000 km (620 miles) and can hit navy or land targets.”
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There is also concern over another key security agreement, as the US and Russia feud over INF treaty.
The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) signed between Washington and the Soviet Union barred the use of the two nations’ land-based ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and missile launchers with that could hit targets from intermediate range, set at distances between 500km range and 5,500km range depending on the type of system.
The treaty was abandoned officially by the US in August.
Now both countries are testing missiles systems which would have previously been banned under the 1987 agreement.