Mujtaba Rahman, the head of the Eurasia Group’s Europe practice, has warned France and Germany could be on a collision course if the EU goes ahead with plans for a “geopolitical Commission”. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has already outlined proposals for further political, economic and military alignment between the EU27 and the rest of the world. Mr Rahman, the chief of the political consultancy firm, has said the plans could “exacerbate internal splits” between French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
He told Politico: “With European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s ambition to lead a ‘geopolitical Commission’ the EU opens a new external front that could exacerbate internal splits.
“Especially between Berlin and Paris, while simultaneously risking the bloc’s relations with the rest of the world.”
At the end of last year, the power struggle between Germany and France was highlighted after Ms Merkel and Mr Macron clashed over NATO.
The German Chancellor highlighted the importance of the military alliance after the French President claimed NATO was “experiencing brain death”.
Divisions between the two largest economies in the eurozone were also shown during the Brexit process when the two leaders clashed over the timetable for extending Article 50.
The European political expert has claimed the French President has been the driving force behind the ‘geopolitical Commission’ by insisting the EU should have “one voice and one purpose”.
Mr Rahman said: “Key to his vision is the idea that the EU must become a political and strategic player with one voice and one purpose.
“First in its own neighbourhood and then in the world.”
Last month, Ms von der Leyan reiterated her vision to lay the foundations for the creation of a “United States of Europe”.
The President of the EU Commission told German magazine Der Spiegel: “The United States of Europe is a project for my children.
“The path to that goal is a long one. All member states will have to be ready to contribute to deeper integration.
“In my generation, the priority is that of putting Europe in a strong position. I want to further develop the leadership role in areas like climate policy and digitalisation.”
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He added: “EU action on trade, tech and climate therefore risks provoking punitive tariffs on some of Europe’s more export-driven sectors such as autos and consumer goods.
“At a time when senior policymakers remain concerned, and have no immediate answers, over how to kickstart growth.
“These tensions will be exacerbated by what the EU wants to do on defence. Sure, the EU is not about to stand up its own continental army.
“However, it will take steps toward using its large internal market to break down cross-border barriers to military trade and technological development.”