A storm, set to strengthen in Texas, will spread rain, and the threat for flooding along the Gulf coast through the middle of the week.
“A storm emerging from the Rockies will strengthen over Texas and Oklahoma late Monday night or Tuesday,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg.
This storm looks to spread rain across much of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas into early Wednesday.
Overall, the rain is not expected to be heavy, although isolated downpours will be possible.
Widespread amounts of half of an inch of rain are likely, with some areas that could reach 1-2 inches of rain.
“Any area that receives multiple downpours may experience urban or localized flooding, particularly in low-lying and poor drainage locations,” added Hoegg.
The exact location of the heaviest rain will be very dependent on the track of the storm after it emerges in Texas.
Should the center of the storm quickly move over the Gulf of Mexico, some of the heaviest rain will remain over water, lessening the amounts in the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
The more southerly track will also lead to lighter rainfall, or perhaps no rain at all, across central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
In either scenario, it appears the storm will reach the Florida Peninsula late Wednesday or Wednesday night. However, a this time, it looks like Florida will only need to prepare for lighter showers, with the heaviest rain staying to the west.
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The unthreatening showers will likely be welcome for much of the Florida Peninsula, given how dry the region has been as of late. Cities like Orlando and Tampa are running well below normal as far as precipitation amounts so far in January. Both cities have had less than their normal rainfall for the month.
However, parts of the south-central that started in a minor-to-moderate drought at the beginning of the year, have been making up that rain deficit thus far in January.
During the second half of 2019, Dallas finished the year off with 66% of the average rainfall. San Antonio, Texas was even drier, ending the second half of the year with only 44% of the normal rainfall.
January was a turning point for these cities and others in the region.
Dallas, through Jan. 24, recorded just shy of 4.5 inches of rainfall, more than double the normal around of rainfall for the entire month. Oklahoma City, during the same time frame, recorded more than 150% of the normal rainfall for the month.
The additional rainfall anticipated in these areas before the start of February, could put these cities in a more susceptible position for flooding. However, should the rain remain light and steady, it could improve the drought across southern and eastern Texas.
According to the update from the US Drought Monitor on Jan. 23, the drought in this area has lessened given the additional rain, but the “South” still had about 27% of the region in a moderate, severe or extreme drought. Another 35% of the region was distinguished as “abnormally dry”.
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