US 2020: Iran stand-off helps Trump on impeachment

Donald Trump faces re-election on November 3 2020 - AP
Donald Trump faces re-election on November 3 2020 – AP

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This month the US Senate is set to hold a trial to decide whether to remove Donald Trump from office, a spectacle only two other US presidents have endured. It is a moment of history and ignominy. 

And yet that is not the big story in Washington. Instead it is the heated stand-off with Iran, laced with threats of retaliation and dire warnings, that dominates the headlines. 

Most leading Democrats have steered clear of suggesting Mr Trump’s decision to take out Iran commander Qassim Soleimani was in any way linked to his domestic woes. 

(Though not all – Democratic senator and presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren lent in during an interview by saying people were “reasonably” asking about the timing). 

Yet it is now becoming clear that the escalating tensions with Iran are influencing the discussion about impeachment. And the beneficiary, it would seem, is Mr Trump. 

The Democrats, who used their majority in the House of Representatives to impeach the president in December, were always facing an uphill task to convince the Republican-held Senate to remove him.

Some 67 of the 100 senators need to vote to remove Mr Trump in the upcoming trial for him to go. There are only 47 Democrats and independents, meaning at least 20 Republican votes would be needed. 

But now the question is not just whether Mr Trump’s behaviour over Ukraine warrants his departure, but whether America should lose its commander-in-chief at a time of possible war.

Consider, for a moment, you are a wavering Republican senator – the ones who ultimately have the President’s fate in their hands, given the maths explained above. 

You know that polls show Republican voters – your constituents, the ones on whom your political career depends – are wholeheartedly against kicking the President from office. 

Three years into the Trump presidency, you are also all too familiar with the public pummelling heading your way if you turn on the occupant of the Oval Office. 

Now imagine deciding to turf out a president while a hostile power in the Middle East is vowing to attack American soldiers at any moment – even while knowing few, if any, other Republicans will join you. 

That, in a nutshell, is why the Iran stand-off helps Mr Trump in the impeachment trial to come. It makes voting for his removal much harder for Republicans.

Yet the political impact beyond the trial and for the November 2020 election is much less clear and hangs in the balance. 

The public have backed Mr Trump’s decision to take out Soleimani according to early polling, albeit narrowly – one survey put support for the move at 43 per cent and disapproval at 38 per cent. 

But the dominoes set in motion by the attack are still unknown. Whether Iran and America continue to trade military blows, and what then follows, will ultimately shape the public’s view of the Soleimani hit. 

Only then will it become clear if Mr Trump benefits from a ‘rallying around the flag’ moment among most American voters, or is blamed for whatever comes next. 

source: yahoo.com