The shape of Brexit has already been defined by the withdrawal agreement Johnson negotiated with the EU in October. It entails the UK leaving the customs union and the single market, with plans for a free-trade agreement later. As Johnson repeatedly said during the election campaign, his deal is “oven-ready”, requiring no further negotiation, and just needs parliament to pass it. Barring any last-minute mishaps, the UK will leave the EU on January 31 2020.
But that is where the certainty ends. The government’s principal election promise will have been delivered after just seven weeks back in office, leaving another five years of governing time. Some of that will involve negotiating trade deals with the EU and beyond. However, governments are usually judged on their domestic agendas, and as the election campaign showed, there is a desire among voters to focus on issues such as healthcare, public services and taxation. What can we expect from the Johnson government after January?
Beyond his signature policy on Brexit, it is difficult to say with certainty what Johnson will offer. More than any other recent politician, Johnson’s rise to the top of British politics was fuelled by personal ambition, not ideology. He has sometimes appeared to want the top job in order to have it rather than to use it to achieve things. Consequently, his policy positions have tended to reflect the ebbs and flows of his political career rather than of any longer-term vision. Most famously, some thought that Johnson would campaign for Remain in the EU referendum in 2016 until it became expedient for his party leadership hopes to campaign for Leave. He resigned from Theresa May’s cabinet over opposition to her Brexit policy and twice voted against her withdrawal agreement in parliament before supporting it the third time.
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