(Bloomberg Opinion) — At a time when many Latin American leaders are pariahs, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele is a puzzle. Aged 38, the former one-term mayor of the capital San Salvador handily won the presidency in February, besting contenders from the two parties that have owned politics for the last three decades. His own party, Nuevas Ideas, is so new, it has no seats in congress. And yet, six months on, Bukele has this nation of 6.5 million people in thrall, his opponents off balance and international leaders on speed dial.
Bukele commands 88% approval ratings, down a notch from his 93% approval in September. A polished communicator, he capitalized on a nation disenchanted with crony politics as usual: El Salvador’s political parties are among the least trusted on the institutional approval index of Vanderbilt University’s Latin American Public Opinion Project. His enviable ratings also owe to his marketing acumen. “Bukele styled himself as an avenger for a new generation, with no ideological bent but fed up with an elite from Jurassic Park,” said Salvadoran economist Alberto Arene. Upon taking office, he fired off executive orders via Twitter, directing his new cabinet members to deep-six officials whose appointments he attributed to nepotism. The refreshing style plays well at home and beyond. He drew applause by snapping a selfie to kick off his address to the United Nations General Assembly in September.
This story isn’t entirely new. Witness the success of disruptive outsiders such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro or Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who relied heavily on plain talk and social media to vault into office.
But Central and South American palaces are full of yesterday’s newcomers. Ecuador’s Lenin Moreno (with 14% approval) and Colombia’s Ivan Duque (26%) both surprised the establishment with their policy initiatives only to fumble before popular outrage. After waves of protests, 84% of Chileans disapprove of President Sebastian Pinera. Even Lopez Obrador, who boasted 85% approval in February, has seen his aura dim as growth has stagnated and violent crime has flourished. After 11 erratic months in office, Bolsonaro, hailed as “the myth” by loyalists, is more loathed than liked.
Bukele might learn something about perishable glory from Mauricio Macri, the onetime Argentine maverick who promised to rescue South America’s second economy from errant populism only to exit amid recession, acrimony and disillusion.
Bukele knows that leadership cannot run on charm alone. His agenda hums with ambition — and caveats. Pledging to mop up corruption from the start, Bukele announced an independent anti-graft commission, a savvy move in a country that ranked 105th among 180 nations in Transparency International’s index of corruption perceptions.
The inspiration, clearly, came from neighboring Guatemala, where an analogous UN-sponsored investigatory commission, CICIG, aggressively pursued corruption, only to provoke a political backlash and the group’s expulsion early this year for supposedly overstepping its bounds. Prudently, perhaps, El Salvador’s investigative body, CICIES, will operate under the wing of the Organization of American States, which favors conciliation and consensus. That could mitigate blowback, but critics charge that it could also limit prosecutorial reach. Yet to be defined are the new body’s mandate, funding and structure.
Bukele has been dexterous in external relations, quickly reaching out to Washington. In September he implausibly agreed to designate El Salvador, alongside Guatemala and Honduras, as a third-country haven for Central American migrants seeking entry to the U.S. Never mind that most northbound asylum seekers seek to avoid El Salvador due to its gang violence. The goodwill sealed by Bukele’s cordial — nay, fawning — visit to the White House (where he also essentially endorsed Donald Trump’s re-election) paid off. Last month, the Trump administration agreed to extend work permits for those Salvadorans in the U.S. on Temporary Protected Status, many of whom hope to regularize their immigration status.
At the same time Bukele has shown he’s eager to play the international field. Following the previous government’s decision to forsake diplomatic ties with Taiwan for China, he recently returned from a trip to Beijing to announce a “gigantic” investment deal backed by China.
Bukele also will need allies at home. El Salvador’s economy has been stuck in low gear for years, expanding at around 2% a year, lagging its two Northern Triangle neighbors. Bukele must find a way to raise productivity, diversify the economy and wean the country from its dependence on expatriate dollars. Remittances alone kick in 22% of El Salvador’s gross domestic product, a nest egg that could shrink if the U.S. economy slows or TPS is rescinded.
First, however, he will have to enlist a congress controlled by political rivals. His core support comes from third-party allies, who occupy 11 of 84 legislative seats. Meantime, he’s gambling on a recruiting drive to attract enough members to his Nuevas Ideas party to field a strong legislative slate for next year’s midterm elections.
Bukele has shown the initiative and the popular enthusiasm needed to carry his agenda forward into policy. But as too many of his struggling peers have discovered, without political cadres and floor votes those assets can quickly turn to duds. There’s no app for that.
(Corrects description of changes to Temporary Protected Status in eighth paragraph.)
To contact the author of this story: Mac Margolis at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Gibney at [email protected]
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Mac Margolis is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Latin and South America. He was a reporter for Newsweek and is the author of “The Last New World: The Conquest of the Amazon Frontier.”
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