Commenting on the YouGov poll, Kit Juckes, Société Generale wrote in a note to clients: “Apart from the fact that confidence in polls, and polling models, is pretty low, there’s also going to be a greater focus now on the lack of uncertainty about what happens after the election.”
Speakig this week after the YouGov poll, Michael Brown said: “Sterling popped to a fresh 6-month high against the common currency on Wednesday, boosted by YouGov’s MRP polling model – which correctly predicted the 2017 election result – forecasting a Conservative majority of 68 come polling day.
“As such, market participants began to further price in the likelihood of a Tory victory, however, as with all opinion polls, the model should be looked at with a healthy pinch of salt.
“Markets will likely remain rangebound, with Thanksgiving in the US draining liquidity and thinning trading volumes.”