Days to Brexit deadline: 85
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Today in Brexit: The Bank of England will unveil its latest forecasts for an economy hampered by uncertainty.
What’s happening? As the U.K. election campaign gets into full swing, one important player in the Brexit debate is about to have its final say before polling day.
The Bank of England will announce its latest interest-rate decision later today, and also release new economic forecasts — the first it’s made since the departure date from the European Union was delayed. With political uncertainty and a weaker global picture continuing to plague the economy, most analysts expect the bank to cut its outlook for growth and inflation. Investors also will delve for hints as to how officials are interpreting the latest Brexit delays.
The BOE has drawn criticism from Brexit supporters in the past for what they see as overly gloomy predictions, but it won’t have any role to play during the campaign. After Governor Mark Carney’s press conference today, the bank will enter a pre-election quiet period — a stretch that BOE previously referred to as “purdah,” before this year dropping that word due to concerns over the term’s gender connotations. Officials will re-emerge after the Dec. 12 vote, when the question of who will replace Carney in January will be one of the first items in the new government’s in-tray.
Meanwhile, Boris Johnson launched his bid for re-election at a rally in the West Midlands last night. The main slogan, emblazoned on his lectern and on screens around the hall, was: “Get Brexit Done — Unleash Britain’s potential.” Johnson claimed he was most “proud” of the deal he negotiated with the European Union, and that it delivered everything he campaigned for in the 2016 referendum. Earlier, on the steps of his Downing Street residence, the prime minister blamed Parliament for postponing the divorce and warned Labour would waste “the whole of 2020 in a horror show” of more delays.
The launch came on an otherwise bruising day for the Tories. Conservative Chairman James Cleverly found himself defending colleagues amid the fallout from Jacob Rees-Mogg’s remarks about the Grenfell Tower fire, and also being drawn into a row over the party’s editing of an interview with Labour’s Keir Starmer for social media. Later, Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns resigned amid reports he knew about a former aide’s role in the collapse of a rape trial — becoming the first Cabinet minister to quit during a campaign for at least 100 years.
Today’s Must-Reads
Bloomberg’s Alex Morales and Greg Ritchie visited Scotland to show how, after two years of Brexit-induced bitterness, the Conservatives are once more fighting for their political survival north of the border. The tremors of the U.K.’s election will be felt across the whole of Europe, Martin Kettle writes in the Guardian. Parliament should adopt alternative voting rules, such as ranked-choice voting, in order to force compromise on Brexit, writes Bloomberg analyst Julien Guyon .
Brexit in Brief
Watson Quits | Labour deputy leader Tom Watson yesterday became the latest high-profile MP to announce he was leaving Parliament after the election. In a letter to Jeremy Corbyn, Watson, who has clashed with the leader over Brexit in the past, said “the decision is personal, not political,” and many shared interests between him and Corbyn are “less well known” than their political differences.
Labour Push | Meanwhile, Corbyn took Labour’s campaign to Telford yesterday, a seat where the opposition needs to convince the 63% of residents who voted to leave the EU in 2016 that Labour can still represent them. “Many people in our country have grown weary of politics,” Corbyn told a rally in the Shropshire town, adding “Westminster hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory recently. It’s a long, long way from the reality of people’s lives.”
End of the Squeeze | Living standards in the U.K. are on the cusp of returning to their pre-crisis levels, according to the Resolution Foundation think tank. The nation’s longest pay downturn in more than two centuries was intensified by the Brexit vote, which caused a drop in the pound that sent inflation soaring above wage increases.
Bercow Breaks Free | Former Commons speaker John Bercow, who proved a thorn in the side of Brexiteers for much of the past three years, is already enjoying the freedom that his new life brings. Bercow, who left the Speaker’s chair last week, told the Foreign Press Association in London that leaving the EU was bad for Britain’s global standing, and indeed was “the biggest foreign policy mistake in the post-war period.’’
Reality Check | U.K. budget officials are set to deliver a warning shot to politicians on Thursday amid fears that the election campaign could turn into an arms race of tax and spending promises. The Office for Budget Responsibility may add close to £20 billion to its budget-deficit forecast for next year when its unveils projections updated to reflect the impact of recently introduced methodological changes.
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To contact the author of this story: David Goodman in London at [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Anne Swardson at [email protected], Leila Taha
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