Dr Vakil, Deputy Head and Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, who has co-authored with the research with Associate Fellow Dr Neil Quilliam, explained Mr Trump has decided to act because he had concluded the deal was flawed because it was comprehensive enough.
Specifically, she told Express.co.uk, Mr Trump had criticised the deal for not imposing more stringent constraints on Iran’s nuclear programme, for the limited timeline of the agreement, for providing significant sanctions relief which, critics argue Tehran has exploited to sponsor regional groups beyond its borders such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in the Lebanon and for neglecting to address Iran’s ballistic missile programme.
Dr Vakil said: “The deal is now under significant pressure because of US sanctions.
“As a result, Iran is under huge pressure internally and has begun to reduce its own compliance with the JPOCA in order to try and pressure the US to deliver something more meaningful.”
However, Mr Trump has showed little willingness to negotiate on the matter, instead “doubling down on his position”, Dr Vakil said.
Meanwhile Iran shot down a US drone during the summer, with Mr Trump confirming he aborted a retaliatory air strike at the last minute, citing concerns over the number of casualties which would result.
READ MORE: Iranian security head repeats threat to destroy Israel in 30 minutes
In addition, Tehran has also been widely blamed for rocket attacks on Saudi Arabian oil refineries.
She suggested Iran’s increased belligerence was its way of “upping the ante” and push the boundaries in the belief that Mr Trump’s decision to call off the military action indicated his unwillingness to be sucked into another war in the region.
However, she warned it was a risky strategy which could trigger a harsh US response, explaining: “They could easily misread the situation and push too far.”
If that happened, given the volatility of the situation, the relative closeness of Israel, and the traditional hostility between the Saudis and Iran, things could deteriorate rapidly.
Dr Vakil said: “This is definitely a major flashpoint in terms of conflict and I would put the risk of a conflict starting, and escalating, at 50/50.”
Hours after her remarks, tensions in the region were underscored when Hezbollah claimed responsibility for firing an anti-aircraft missile at an Israeli drone flying over southern Lebanon.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) denied Hezbollah claims that the attack had resulted in the aircraft being shot down over the Lebanese village of Nabatieh.
A statement said: “A short while ago, anti-aircraft fire was detected from Lebanese territory at an IDF unmanned aerial vehicle. The aircraft was not damaged.”
A subsequent Hezbollah statement said: “At 2.05pm Thursday afternoon, fighters of the Islamic resistance confronted a hostile drone in southern Lebanon’s skies with the appropriate weapons and forced it to leave the area.”
Last month, a small IDF drone was downed southern Lebanon.
The Israel Defense Forces said the aircraft had been carrying out “routine operations to secure the border” when it crashed inside Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah also claimed responsibility for shooting down a similar drone in September.