As the wheel turns, so the hunters become the hunted. England chased down New Zealand last weekend, herding the holders into an enclosure, but they know South Africa are coming to round them up on Saturday.
The Springboks’ head coach, Rassie Erasmus, was happy on Tuesday to more than hint at his line-up for the final and point out that England could expect more of the same remorselessly physical, attritional rugby that had taken them to the final day. He is not one given to subterfuge or mind games: the only doubt he looks to put into opponents is whether they are equipped to deal with what they know they will face.
It is South Africa’s third final and they have all been 12 years apart. Much has been made of Eddie Jones’s involvement with them in 2007, when they defeated England in the final, and how the Springboks are following the same defensive template they had then. But it was no different to 1995 when they prevented New Zealand from scoring a try in a final when even Jonah Lomu struggled to make ground.
A difference between the South Africa Jones was involved with and the team his England will face on Saturday is one of development. Two years ago, the question was whether they would qualify from their group after two campaigns in which they struggled to reach mediocrity; anything more looked fanciful.
Erasmus returned to South Africa at the end of 2017 as director of rugby, an overseeing role in which he would develop strategies for the various strands that made up the professional game. He immediately realised that the most pressing need was to rehabilitate the Springboks, who had slumped to eighth in the world rankings and had lost their identity. That South Africa are looking like South Africa again is credit to his man-management as well as his coaching ability.
When Erasmus said his 23 for Saturday would very probably be the same as the one he named for the semi-final against Wales, apart from the fit-again wing Cheslin Kolbe, there was disbelief from reporters who had taken a day off from following England around. It had to be an attempt, albeit one that lacked any disguise, to point Jones and his coaches in the wrong direction.
There is no more pretence with Erasmus than there is in his side’s approach on the field. The two wasted years from 2015 meant he had to start again, giving him half the time to prepare for the World Cup that his rivals enjoyed. His game plan in the Springboks’ big matches here – against New Zealand, Japan and Wales – has been centred on defusing their opponents.
It did not quite work against the All Blacks who scored their two tries from broken play in four minutes, but South Africa stifled the free-running Japan and kept them tryless before kicking the ladder out from under Wales and leaving them dangling by minimising the impact of the part of the game that provides their fuel, defence.
The Springboks kicked the ball almost as often as they passed it. Wales had far fewer tackles to make than they wanted and were given very few opportunities to force mistakes in their opponents’ half. South Africa’s indiscipline helped keep the match close until the end, but it was another tactical triumph for Erasmus who will formulate another approach for England.
Bookmakers reckon it will be a one-sided final with England’s projected victory being between 21 and 25 points. That assumes they will carry on where they left off against New Zealand, although their one area of weakness was a failure to take chances: they had two tries disallowed, one after the television match official had usurped the role of the referee, and in the first half alone lost the ball three times in the All Blacks’ 22.
Those predictions also ignore what South Africa will bring: aggressive defence and organisation. New Zealand set out to impose their game on England and kept on trying even when the superiority of their opponents demanded a different approach. The Springboks will look to soak up pressure, protect the gainline and strike when England are wondering what to do next.
When Wales were able to take play through phases in the semi-final, they made little ground through their forwards: the ball tended to come back slowly from the breakdown, forcing them to use one-out runners to try to make ground.
They were knocked back time and again and South Africa will this weekend look to make statements when the likes of Maro Itoje, Billy Vunipola and Tom Curry receive the ball, smashing into them hard and then harder.
England will need to widen the point of attack, but that means generating quick ball after a tackle or, which is more risky, deploying runners from deep. South Africa do not have breakdown burglars in the mould of Curry and Underhill, but they clear out more ruthlessly than any other team in the tournament.
A number of games here have been settled by fast starts, but since conceding 17 points in the opening half against New Zealand at the start of the group stage, South Africa have given away 15 points in the first 40 minutes, five penalties and no tries. England’s first-half defensive record, also across five matches, is the same: 15 points, all from penalties. If someone does build an early lead, the other will be confronted by the unfamiliar. But it points to a repeat of the other two finals South Africa were involved in – tight and tense.
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