President Xi Jinping is setting his sights upon the Antarctic region, with a wealth of natural resources thought to be sitting unclaimed beneath the ice. Experts believe Antarctica has a trove of resources, including oil, minerals, coal, hydrocarbons and lucrative fishing waters. In addition, the region houses the largest freshwater reserve on Earth in large ice sheets, which could soon become attractive to drought-stricken areas.
The continent has been shielded from resource exploration and other exploitation thanks to an agreement signed in 1959 during the Cold War, that was joined by 54 countries.
The simple treaty evolved into strict and unwavering regulations that construct the Antarctic Treaty System.
The ATS applies to land and sea, existing alongside other international laws – like the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – to prevent conflict, foster international cooperation and enable scientific development.
Crucially, this treaty is up for renegotiation 2048, which despite being almost 30 years into the future, represents a golden opportunity for China to expand their resource exploration and contribute to their economic and political ambitions of worldwide dominance.
Beijing currently has four bases on the continent, and a fifth is under construction.
They form the fulcrum of China’s various ventures in the region, including scientific research, polar tourism, an airfield and new icebreaker for resource extraction, as highlighted in David Fishman’s essay for Lawfare.
Fishman also indicates that China may already be breaking international law on Antarctica due to unreported military activity in the region.
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Putin also tested ballistic missiles in three separate areas of the Arctic, although one warhead failed to launch in an embarrassing moment for Moscow’s military.
Russia’s influence far outweighs the US’ in the region though, meaning two key locations are now out of Washington’s control.
As Trump sits idly by, China and Russia are leaving the US in a potentially sticky situation as resource rich ice eludes Washington.