EU Agrees to Extension as U.K. Election Looms: Brexit Update

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The European Union agreed to grant the U.K. a three-month Brexit delay to Jan. 31, prolonging the uncertainty for businesses and citizens but removing the risk of a damaging no-deal split on Thursday.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pushing a vote in the House of Commons on Monday to trigger an early general election, saying it’s the only way to resolve the deadlock that has stopped the U.K. ratifying an exit deal.

Key Developments:

EU Council President Donald Tusk announces delay in tweet; says decision will be formalized “through a written procedure”French President Emmanuel Macron dropped his opposition to three-month delay, paving way for EU agreementJohnson needs a two-thirds majority in Parliament for early general election to take place; a vote in the House of Commons is due on Monday afternoonCorbyn said he won’t vote for an election until the U.K. is no longer at risk of crashing out of the EU without an agreementLiberal Democrats, Scottish National Party are working together to try to force a snap poll on Dec. 9, reflecting schism with LabourRead more: Brexit Twists Point to Election. Here’s How It Works: QuickTake

EU Envoys Agree Delay to Jan. 31: Tusk (9:30 a.m.)

Envoys representing the 27 remaining European Union members states agreed to the U.K. request for a Brexit extension to Jan. 31, EU Council President Donald Tusk said on Twitter. The bloc’s decision will be formalized “through a written procedure,” Tusk said, meaning that there will be no leaders’ summit.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, told reporters the diplomats’ meeting was “very short, effective and constructive” as he left the room.

What Envoys Will Discuss in Brussels (9 a.m.)

Envoys from the remaining 27 EU members states debate the wording of two separate documents this morning — a six-page legal decision granting an extension, and a two-page declaration explaining the reasoning. The main points of the documents, drafts of which were obtained by Bloomberg on Sunday, are as follows:

Brexit will take place on the first day of the month following the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, “or on 1 February 2020, whichever is the earliest”The Withdrawal Agreement isn’t up for renegotiation during the extension period. Note that EU leaders took a similar decision when they granted the previous extension in April, but broke their rule after Johnson’s government, with different red lines, took officeThe U.K must nominate a candidate for EU Commissioner after the extension is granted. However, the wording of the documents suggests that the confirmation process of the British candidate may not be finalized before the end of January, meaning the U.K won’t actually get to have a commissionerThe EU reminds the U.K that it still has the right to revoke BrexitFinally, EU governments warn that the U.K should do nothing which is seen as sabotaging the bloc during the extension period

Johnson’s Different Routes to an Election (8:50 a.m.)

The European Union’s apparent intention to extend the Brexit deadline to Jan. 31 could yet have an impact on Monday’s vote in the House of Commons. Yet Boris Johnson still looks likely to fall short of the two-thirds majority he needs to secure an early general election. That’s because an extension on its own doesn’t satisfy the opposition Labour Party’s position that it won’t support a snap poll until the risk of a no-deal Brexit is completely removed.

But over the weekend, another option emerged via a proposal from the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party. They suggested amending the Fixed-term Parliament Act to set the next election for Dec. 9, which crucially would require only a simply majority to pass. The risk for the government lies in MPs trying to attach amendments to the bill, but a U.K. official later indicated such a move could be considered if it loses Monday’s vote.

There’s a final way Johnson could get his election — though it’s a longer and untested process, with significant risks. The opposition or Johnson himself could trigger a no-confidence vote in the government, which requires a simply majority to succeed. Party leaders then would have 14 days to form a new government that can win a confidence vote, with Parliament dissolved — and a general election scheduled — if all efforts fail.

Macron Backs Brexit Delay (7:48 a.m.)

French President Emmanuel Macron will agree to a Brexit extension, easing the risk of the U.K. leaving the European Union without a deal on Oct. 31, according to a French government official.

Macron has agreed a delay until Jan. 31, said the official, who asked not to be identified. With other member states already supporting the move, France’s backing paves the way for EU diplomats to sign off on an extension during talks in Brussels on Monday.

Williamson Optimistic Government Can Win Vote (Earlier)

Education Secretary Gavin Williamson said he’s “optimistic” the government can win the vote on Monday to hold a general election, noting that the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party, for example, “are moving to the recognition that this Parliament isn’t going to deliver anything.”

“I actually think that you’ll see quite rapid movement,” Williamson told Sky News.

Williamson was touring the broadcast studios plugging a government announcement of 400 million pounds ($515 million) of spending on schools. It’s the latest in a succession of announcements of increased expenditure on education, health and policing by the Conservatives, and a reminder the ruling party is on a constant election footing,

Earlier:

EU Proposes Brexit Extension to Jan. 31 Ahead of Envoy Talks Johnson and Macron: The Odd Couple Determined to Get Brexit DoneWhy Would Jeremy Corbyn Help Boris Johnson Now?: Therese RaphaelJohnson Sent to ‘Naughty Step’ on Brexit, DUP’s Foster Says

–With assistance from Stuart Biggs.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Morales in London at [email protected];Helene Fouquet in Paris at [email protected];Nikos Chrysoloras in Brussels at [email protected];Ian Wishart in Brussels at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at [email protected], Stuart Biggs

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