The Michael Cheika era is all but over.
After guiding the Wallabies to the final of the 2015 World Cup in England, Cheika vowed to quit if Australia did not win the tournament in Japan. There is no need for Cheika to offer his resignation. His contract will not be renewed. There has already been speculation Rugby Australia has sounded out New Zealander Dave Rennie to replace him. What started out so promisingly for Cheika and the Wallabies ended so disappointingly with the 40-16 defeat to England in the World Cup quarter-final at Oita Stadium on Saturday.
When Cheika replaced Ewen McKenzie as Wallabies coach towards the end of 2014 there was almost universal support for his appointment. Cheika was the only coach to have won both the Heineken Cup in Europe and the Super Rugby title, turning around the previously under-performing Irish province Leinster and the NSW Waratahs respectively.
When Cheika took the Wallabies from sixth in the world to the World Cup final, which they lost to the All Blacks at Twickenham, there was optimism that he would repeat his provincial success at the international level. Cheika was named International Coach of the Year and Rugby Australia extended his contract from 2017 to the 2019 World Cup in Japan.
The future looked bright for Cheika and Australia, but the last four years have shown that the Wallabies’ achievement at the 2015 World Cup was not so much a fluke, but an aberration. Cheika has ended his career as Wallabies coach with an average record of 34 wins, 32 losses and two draws. Keeping in mind nine of those wins came against tier two nations.
The Wallabies’ record of four wins from 13 Tests in 2018 was their worst performance since 1958, prompting speculation that Cheika would be sacked. Rugby Australia was reluctant to change the head coach just a year out from the World Cup. Instead, Wallabies attack coach Stephen Larkham departed. Larkham was replaced by Melbourne Rebels attack coach Shaun Berne, a Randwick man like Cheika.
Cheika survived, but his power was curbed. Rugby Australia appointed its own director of rugby Scott Johnson and dual international Michael O’Connor to a selection panel to help Cheika pick the team.
When the Wallabies upset the All Blacks 47-26 in the first Bledisloe Cup Test in August it appeared Cheika had finally got the selections and strategies right. But the Wallabies were back to square one when the All Blacks thrashed them 36-0 in Auckland a week later.
While the selection of the forward pack was remarkably consistent at the World Cup, the constant chopping and changing of the backs, particularly the halves, created the strong impression the selectors did not know what the best Wallabies team was.
It is difficult to pin-point why Cheika was unable to duplicate his success at the provincial level in the Test area. Cheika brought the same organisational and motivational skills that served him so well at Leinster and the Waratahs to the Wallabies. What went wrong?
A cut above the rest at the provincial level, Cheika found himself up against coaches who were just as smart, if not smarter, than himself in the Test arena. He could get away with playing an almost exclusive ball-in-hand style at the provincial level, but it was tactically naïve at Test level as the ruthless English side exposed in the quarter-final.
One of Cheika’s main strengths as a provincial coach was his ability to recruit the right players to improve the team. The recruitment of Australian flanker Rocky Elsom to Leinster and South African forward Jacques Potgieter to the Waratahs were master-strokes. But in Test rugby there is no international player market to go to when a coach is looking to strengthen a certain position. You have to develop your own national pool of player talent.
Cheika and Rugby Australia tried to get around this by weakening Australia’s eligibility laws for overseas-based players with the introduction of the so-called Giteau Law. For the 2019 World Cup, Cheika was able to select halfback Nic White and utility back James O’Connor from English clubs, which increased their depth. But if the Wallabies were a provincial team, Cheika may have recruited a world class five-eighth to direct the team, arguably weakest, and most contentious, position.
Cheika may be going, but it is unlikely we have seen the last of him at club or even Test level. While his name has been linked with French club Montpellier, he has a close relationship with Argentine rugby. It would not be surprising to see him coaching the Pumas at the 2023 World Cup in France.
Perhaps Cheika can take some inspiration from the man who ended his tenure with the Wallabies, his former Randwick club-mate and English coach Eddie Jones. Jones was 45 years old when he was sacked as Wallabies coach in 2005 and he has managed to rebuild his career with the Springboks, Japan and now England. Cheika is only 52 years old. There are plenty of years of coaching ahead if that is what he wants to do.
Australian rugby will not remember Cheika as a winning Wallabies coach, but he has left behind a legacy of passion for the gold jersey and a mindset of never giving up, which may be a boon for whoever succeeds him.