England v Australia
Eddie Jones has picked a team with England’s Six Nations win in Dublin in mind. If Jones has a blueprint for precisely how he wants his team to play, that is the closest they have come to it since he took charge.
People need to understand that for Jones, selection is about picking the best players to fit the system he wants. England’s biggest strengths in this tournament are their power and their dynamism so I’m not surprised he has added extra ballast, particularly with Samu Kerevi at No 12 for Australia. He is the epicentre of everything good for the Wallabies and he needs to be paid a huge amount of attention.
I’ve loved the soundbites coming out of Australia’s camp this week. They seem very well prepared mentally, they are a brilliant knockout team, and that carries so much weight. One of the key areas of the match will be the breakdown and with four fetchers on the field, a lot will rest on how much of a contest the referee Jérôme Garcès allows. That also brings tactical kicking into play – Australia kick the least, England among the most, and knowing when to keep the ball and when to try and pin your opponents back will be crucial. I also think England have the edge in the tight five and I am backing them to edge it.
New Zealand v Ireland
If there is one defensive coach I would select to try and beat New Zealand it would be Andy Farrell and the Ireland players will take a huge amount of comfort and positivity from that. He was always a big-match player, with an unbelievable temperament, and he knows how to ready players for the big stage. He did it out in New Zealand with the Lions and he’ll be hoping to do it again.
Ireland are not the same team they were a year or two ago but they have a one-off performance in them. They’ve got a huge amount of experience but they are going to have to play a lot better than they have so far this year and they will have to do it collectively. Ireland will almost welcome being told that they are in decline. Internally they will be telling each other that apparently we’re not good enough. There’s nothing better than proving people wrong.
Look at the New Zealand v South Africa match, it was two bad kicks from the Springboks which led to 17 points in no time. That is how deadly they are. New Zealand have been impeccable, They have not really been spoken about, maybe just because we’ve come to expect the level that they play at. Ireland either edge this through sheer belligerence, physicality and owning the big moments, or you can see New Zealand putting 30-40 points on them. I can’t look past the All Blacks.
Wales v France
The hardest of the four matches to call. If France can play to their full capabilities for the whole 80 minutes it could cause Wales all manner of problems. Wales pride themselves on their physicality and their big-match temperament and Sunday should be no different.
The big thing I wonder about them is whether they can score enough tries when push comes to shove. They have the ability but I’m not sure their approach suits them in that regard. All in all, they’ve looked decent so far. But if France start like they did against Argentina, and Wales are asked to score two or three tries to win the match, can they do it?
Wales are very good at stopping teams getting momentum. I just would love to see the very best of Wales and the very best of France going at it. When France get momentum, their offloading going, and fluidity in their attack, it just gives them so much energy. My one reservation is whether they can sustain it. They had the game won against Argentina and then almost lost it. It has always been my question of them. If they can sustain it they can be a match for anyone at this tournament but I do not believe Wales will allow them to.
Japan v South Africa
Japan, who face South Africa in Sunday’s second quarter-final, are not getting enough credit for the way they have played. If New Zealand had played with the skill, the verve and the pace that Japan did against Scotland, with the execution they showed over and over again, we’d be saying that is why they are the best team in the world.
There was every reason for them to enjoy the moment afterwards because they created history with the backdrop of what happened the day before, it was an emotional time. I just wonder, have they already had their big match? I appreciate we wondered that after the Ireland match but how many more times can they do it? If they come with that energy, if they hang on to the ball …
If South Africa allow Japan 75% possession, like Scotland did in the first half of their match, we could see Japan in the semi-finals. It’s going to be a real battle of who can impose their game for the longest period. If South Africa can utilise their physicality and set-piece game then Japan are going to really struggle.
But I’m not sure South Africa will find the answers that Ireland and Scotland could not if Japan have so much possession. South Africa have a wonderful blend of brutal ball carriers and deadly backs, though, and if Handré Pollard is on form I think this will be the end of a wonderful journey for Japan. That means I’ve predicted all four favourites to win this weekend. It’s incredibly hard not to but I think I’ll be proved wrong in at least one of them – I just don’t know which.