Trump will WIN election 2020: Moody’s election model forecasts 'easy' win for Donald Trump

Donald Trump is likely to win in the forthcoming 2020 elections according to Moody’s accurate election model. According to the company’s analytics, the incumbent President is heading for “easy” reelection come next year. Confidence in Mr Trump’s second term turnout is hinged on the US’ economic standing in 2020, however.

Moody’s Analytics, a financial services company, employed three different economic analysis models to measure Donald Trump’s potential success in the 2020 Presidential elections.

The report determined the President would sweep more votes in the Electoral College in 2020 than he did in 2016.

Moody’s based its projections on consumer’s confidence in their financial standing (the Pocketbook Model), gains made by the stock market (the Stock Market Model), and prospects for unemployment (the Unemployment Model).

Under the Pocketbook Model, President Trump would “steamroll” competition, according to the report.

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The report states: “Our ‘pocket book’ model is the most economically driven of the three.

“If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition.

“This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”

Their pocketbook model calculated Trump would gain some 351 votes in the Electoral College, 289 under the Stock Market Model and 332 under the Unemployment Model.

Average Democrat turnout was at 46.8 percent in 2016.

If they were to experience an upsurge in turnout, Donald Trump would end up with resistance next year.

Voter turnout is expected to be the highest in a century come 2020, at roughly 70 percent according to election analysts.

Whether this will favour Democrats or Republicans, however, is unclear.

If the surge in turnout was to swing towards the Democrats, it could give them the presidency in 2020.

An upset isn’t impossible and gave Moody’s report their first and only incorrect prediction in 2016.

During the last Presidential election, Moody’s predicted a narrow win for Hillary Clinton, but unprecedented turnout on the Republican side swung it for Donald Trump.

Last year during the Midterm elections, unprecedented turnout on the side of the Democrats caused a “blue wave” in Congress, handing them the floor of the House of Representatives.

source: express.co.uk