Around 15,000 British and Irish racegoers are expected at Longchamp on Sunday and all but a handful will be hoping – indeed, expecting – to see Enable round off a glorious career with a historic third success in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Who can blame them? The script to this point seems to demand nothing less. But it may also do its leading player something of a disservice, because the final scene that would confirm Enable’s place among European racing’s all-time greats is a long way from being a foregone conclusion.
The 15th race of her career promises to be the most demanding assignment of all. The field is the smallest for a dozen years but there is a depth to the competition that was not there in 2017 – when Enable had all the allowances as a three-year-old filly – or 2018, when the year-younger Sea Of Class was seemingly beaten only by her draw.
Sea Of Class was the obvious potential improver in last year’s field and she got to within a nose of Enable.
This year, though, Enable has three opponents with a similar profile: Sottsass, Japan and the four-year-old Ghaiyyath. All three are fresh, lightly-raced and have very little to find to give her a race.
Enable’s class, courage and will to win may see her through once again, but to justify quotes of 4-6, she should be several pounds clear of her field on ratings. Timeform’s figures, though, have her behind Ghaiyyath before factoring in her 3lb mares’ allowance.
On the weight-adjusted ratings, Japan and Sottsass are 6lb and 7lb behind Enable, after eight and six races respectively. Both have scope for further improvement, Sottsass in particular, and Jean-Claude Rouget’s runner has also been prepared solely with the Arc in mind.
At the available prices, Ghaiyyath must be the value in the market at around 12-1 and potentially bigger still on the PMU. Perhaps it is his disappointing run in the Prix Ganay in April that sticks in some punters’ minds, but that followed close behind his impressive first outing for six months. His first start at 12 furlongs, meanwhile, in last month’s Grosser Preis at Baden, saw him put his exceptional stride to good use on the way to a 14-length success.
The draw could have been kinder but the widest stall of 12 is much less of a challenge than 18 of 18, and in terms of his form, rating and scope for improvement, Ghaiyyath’s chance to upset the favourite is as good, if not better, than that of Sottsass or Japan. An each-way bet at 12-1 is surely the way to go.
Kelso 1.45 Lucky Flight 2.20 Dieu Benisse 2.50 Kaizer 3.20 Forest Bihan (nap) 3.50 Uptown Harry 4.20 Danboru 4.55 Nortonthorpelegend 5.30 Izzy’s Champion (nb)
Uttoxeter 2.10 Clearly Capable 2.40 Rebel Leader 3.10 Grania O’Malley 3.40 Erick Le Rouge 4.10 Cracker Jak 4.45 Moores Novelty 5.20 Mason Jar