Global Pandemic threat: ‘Human error’ leak of lab virus now a ‘substantial probability'

Lynn Klotz, Senior Science Fellow at the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation said: “There is a substantial probability that a pandemic with over one hundred million fatalities could be seeded from an undetected lab-acquired infection.” Laboratories run by Ron Fouchier in the Netherlands and Yoshihiro Kawaoka in Madison, Wisconsin have begun a “research enterprise” aimed at creating mammalian-airborne-transmissible, highly-pathogenic, avian-influenza live viruses. Such viruses could be transmitted through the air, similar to seasonal human influenza.

Through November 2018, 14 laboratories have been identified in this enterprise.

Mr Klotz argues the likelihood of one of those viruses escaping from a lab is “as high as 30 percent, a risk to dangerous to live with”.

These viruses are examples of lab-created potentially pandemic pathogens, or PPPS.

The risk of a man-made pandemic from a lab escape is not hypothetical, lab-originated viral outbreaks have occurred before.

Mr Klotz states: “The historical record reveals lab-originated outbreaks and deaths due to the causative agents of the 1977 pandemic flu, smallpox escapes in Great Britain, Venezuelan equine encephalitis in 1995, SARS outbreaks after the SARS epidemic, and foot and mouth disease in the UK in 2007.”

He added: “Ironically, these labs were working with pathogens to prevent the very outbreaks that they ultimately caused.”

Because there is no international regulatory body to control the research with micro-organisms that could potentially wipe out most of humanity, Mr Klotz argues for a ban on the most hazardous pathogens, and on mutating these.

With a ban not likely, he gives some examples as to how risks could be lessened.

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Mr Klotz maintains that a lab-originated viruses escaping would lead to widespread death.

Mr Klotz said: “There is a substantial probability that a pandemic with over one hundred million fatalities could be seeded from an undetected lab-acquired infection”.

The earlier research conducted by Klotz, citing fellow scientists, suggested, for instance, that the quick spread of the H1N1 in 2009 pandemic virus, also known as “swine flu”, throughout the world, “no matter what attempts were made to slow it, is convincing evidence that it is nearly impossible to stop an influenza pandemic once it appears”.

The study also points to the high possibility that “malevolent individuals, organizations, or governments” with “sinister motives” could use lab-created pathogens as real biological weapons.

The study also points to the high possibility that “malevolent individuals, organizations, or governments” with “sinister motives” could use lab-created pathogens as real biological weapons.

According to the research, one possible prevention measure is to quarantine lab staffers after shifts and relocate biological and virus facilities to remote, lightly populated areas.

The scholar also suggested that a lab originated virus escape could be undetectable, indicating that humanity may never notice the gruesome consequences until it is too late.

This study comes amid news of the first annual report by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, an independent group of 15 experts convened by the World Bank and WHO after the first Ebola crisis, describes the threat of a pandemic spreading around the world, potentially killing tens of millions of people, as “a real one”.

There are “increasingly dire risks” of epidemics, yet the world remained unprepared, the report said.

It warned epidemic-prone diseases such as Ebola, influenza and Sars are increasingly difficult to manage in the face of increasing conflict, fragile states and rising migration.

The climate crisis, urbanisation and a lack of adequate sanitation and water are breeding grounds for fast-spreading, catastrophic outbreaks.

source: express.co.uk