Tropical Storm Karen NOAA: Latest Euro model track puts Karen on devastating path

Tropical Storm Karen continues to track across the Caribbean toward Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. The storm is heading north-northwest packing winds of 40mph. These winds may damage trees, power lines and small structures and heavy rain is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

The powerful weather system is expected to bring “heavy rain” to Puerto Rico and the Virgins Islands, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) warned.

On Tuesday morning Karen is forecast to take a more northerly directly and tropical-storm-force winds could arrive by midday in Puerto Rico.

The relatively fresh storm formed early on Sunday near Grenada.

By Monday morning NOAA had issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands.

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A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within the next 24 hours.

NOAA said in its latest advisory: “Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time.

“It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already.

“Regardless of whether or not Karen is a tropical cyclone when it passes near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the system is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds in squalls and heavy rainfall over those areas.

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“After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening like most of the typically reliable intensity guidance, however, the confidence in this portion of the intensity forecast is low.”

Unlike the NOAA forecast, which puts Karen further south, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) put the storm in a more “equatorward” position.

The forecast guidance from NOAA is “low” but it is still in good agreement on Karen turning northward.

Karen could weaken to a tropical depression or degenerate into an open wave later on Monday.

However, little overall change in wind speed is expected over the next day or so.

Watches and warnings in effect

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • US Virgin Islands
  • Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
  • British Virgin Islands
source: express.co.uk