The Wallabies may be ranked only sixth in the world, but it would be foolish to discount them as potential winners.
They will not be everybody’s, if anybody’s, favourites to win the World Cup. Their poor track record in recent years will not inspire much confidence. And, of course, they have lost one of their highest-profile players, Israel Folau, whose sacking over homophobic social media comments and subsequent legal action remain an enormous distraction.
New Zealand, England, Wales, Ireland and South Africa are all rated ahead of the men in gold, but if history is any guide, the Wallabies will be contenders, and serious ones at that.
The Wallabies have a rich history at the World Cup. They have won the tournament twice, played in the final four times, appeared in the semi-finals six times and failed to advance beyond the quarter-finals on only two occasions. Along with New Zealand and France, Australia have competed in the knockout stages of every World Cup since its inception in 1987. The wide open nature of this year’s tournament suits a team who are always there or thereabouts.
Their coach, Michael Cheika, will be looking to enhance his reputation as a World Cup specialist. He took Australia from sixth in the world to the World Cup final in 2015, losing to the All Blacks. But after those unexpected heights they crashed back down to earth. The 2018 season was their worst since 1958 and there were calls for Cheika to go.
Rugby Australia kept faith with him, if only because they thought it was impractical to change the head coach so late in the World Cup cycle. Cheika will believe, having done it once, he can do it again.
With the departure of the attack coach Stephen Larkham, Cheika recreated the Wallabies’ style in his own abrasive, confrontational image. He has devised a gameplan based around brutality and brilliance. The linchpin of the strategy is the powerful inside-centre Samu Kerevi, whose primary role is to get the Wallabies across the advantage line.
Every top team in the world – with the notable exception of Australia – is employing a rush defence. The use of the strong-running Kerevi, coupled with big ball-carrying forwards, is designed to negate that defensive tactic. Once across the advantage line, they play the old Randwick flat-line attack to put maximum pressure on the defence.
The Wallabies executed their new strategy with mixed results in the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup series. Their 47-26 win over the All Blacks in Perth and their 36-0 loss to the Kiwis in Auckland a week later showed what they are capable of – and what they are not. They have the size and strength to carry out their plan, but not always the skill and the discipline.
Importantly though, Australia’s new approach is suitable to the attritional nature of World Cup rugby. If they can get past Fiji and Wales in the pool stage, they will secure a more favourable passage in the knockout stages.
You may or may not expect the Wallabies to win the World Cup, but you should expect them to be among the contenders when the big games are played at the end of the tournament – they almost always are.