If this is the most wide-open World Cup to date, Scotland sit just outside the realm of credible winners. They are not going to win this tournament, not because they are incapable of beating the best in the world on their day, but because they have proved time and again they cannot make it their day more than once in a while.
A lack of heft on the ball-carrying front is a problem, as is the simple virtue of discipline. It places great onus on their skill and pace, which are of the highest order but, by the nature of such qualities, unstable, even ephemeral. The search for that priceless asset, another way to play – or Plan B, as it is so often called – goes on.
Encouraging evidence of another way was submitted in the second of their recent warm-up games against France, when they recovered from the sort of rout they remain susceptible to in the first Test in Nice to find a way to victory in the second at Murrayfield. It was almost a relief to see them respond with the sort of victory one might describe as “chiselled out”.
For all that, when we think of Scotland, we think of their two most recent outings against England. In 2018’s Calcutta Cup at Murrayfield, they played the rugby of the gods, the kind that could make anyone believe they were world-beaters. Finn Russell and his myriad runners tore the second best team in the world at the time to shreds. It was “their day”, all right. Then, as surely as night follows their day, Scotland travelled to Dublin in the next round and imploded.
But the madness of 2019’s Calcutta Cup encapsulated this Scotland vintage as well as any game: 31-0 down after half an hour; 38-31 up with three minutes to play; 38-38 at the death. Scotland are not dissimilar to this England vintage – richly gifted in attack, all too often all over the place in defence.
What they lack, which England do not, is a heavyweight’s punch in the ball-carrying department. Hence their loitering on the fringes of the genuine contenders. But no one will particularly want to face them, not even New Zealand or South Africa, their likely opponents should they reach the quarter-finals.
In order to get there, Scotland must negotiate a pool of moderate difficulty. That said, if each pool might be judged by its third-ranked team, Pool A is theoretically the hardest, with Japan ranked higher than Fiji, Argentina or Italy of the others. Scotland will open with all guns blazing against Ireland, their chances of winning directly linked to how accurately they are shooting, but the game that will likely decide the pool is their final-round fixture against the hosts in Yokohama, where the final will be played.
It is a reflection of the changing order of world rugby – at least outside the top six – that Japan against Scotland is no one’s idea of a gimme. It ought to be a spectacular match, two teams of deadly speed and skill playing for high stakes. Scotland might be defending the old order in such a contest, but they will do so playing rugby of the future.