Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s political in-tray may be full with Brexit matters but he will need to act swiftly as tensions in the Middle East grow. The US has imposed further sanctions against top Iranian government officials, this time directed at Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Iran retaliated by accusing Washington of “childish behaviour”. Governments are watching the increasing fiery rhetoric between the two nations, provoked by the United States’ decision to reintroduce economic sanctions on Tehran last year.
Soon after Mr Johnson’s appointment as Prime Minister on July 23, his father Stanley Johnson implied his son would find it “easy peasy” to solve the crisis.
Speaking on Iran’s Press TV, Mr Johnson Senior was asked how the new Prime Minister would respond to the recent Iranian seizure of the British tanker Stena Impero.
He replied: “Of course you have this situation at the moment where we’ve got your ship which is called Stella, you’ve got our ship, which is called something else.
“Well, the best thing would be to say, look, we let your ship go, you let our ship go. Easy peasy.”
Mr Johnson’s “Stella” comment is believed to be about the Iranian tanker Grace 1 seized in Gibraltan waters by British forces after it was accused of carrying oil to Syria.
That idea was shot down by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab today who said no bartering would take place and the rule of international law must be observed.
Mr Raab said: “We are not going to barter a ship that was detained legally with a ship that was detained illegally: that’s not the way that Iran will come in from the cold.
“So I am afraid some kind of barter or haggle or linkage is not on the table.”
Mr Raab’s comments are likely to niggle Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani after he congratulated Mr Johnson on his Downing Street appointment.
Will Boris Johnson take a harder stance on Iran?
Mr Johnson has entered negotiations at a critical point and things could go either way, Iran expert Dr Ali Alavi told Express.co.uk.
The SOAS University of London (School of Oriental and African Studies) teaching fellow said: “Mr Johnson has the capacity to de-escalate the situation as he has the background [as former foreign secretary] but it’s how he wants to architect his foreign policy.
“He may take a hard approach to Iran but it depends on how they react to him.”
The Prime Minister’s approach is likely to be influenced by Brexit because of the increasing likelihood of a no-deal exit from the European Union, Dr Alavi added.
He explained: “Mr Johnson will be closer to the Trump administration in order to compensate no-deal Brexit and in return, they may require the UK to side with the US.”
Despite this, Britain has pushed for a European alliance to prevent further tankers being seized in the Persian Gulf.
This has been undermined by Germany’s refusal to join, with Foreign Minister Heiko Maas saying there should be “no military solution”.
Russia today also ratcheted tensions by saying the US was raising events “to a dangerous point and there are risks of a large-scale military clash”.
Dr Alavi said India and China will also be watching closely as both are “heavily dependent on resources in the region and want to ensure its safety”.
He added: “Russia is not dependent on the region for energy but it does want to ensure its power is in balance.
“The US won’t be pushed out of region as they have strong military bases.
“India and China do not have the stomach to push them out but they may take advantage of the situation by entering the Persian Gulf using the justification of needing to protect their own tankers.
“All of this depends on how Mr Johnson and Iran react.”
While the Prime Minister may have yet to publicly adopt a plan, he needs to act with in the next couple of months to manoeuvre the current stalemate.
Dr Alavi says he also needs to be aware of putting “all his eggs in one basket” to appease Mr Trump as the 2020 US Presidential elections draw nearer.