Shane Lowry shot a flawless course-record 63 yesterday. As a result he’s four shots clear of second-placed Tommy Fleetwood after 54 holes of the 148th Open Championship. Six clear of third-placed JB Holmes. Seven clear of Brooks Koepka and Justin Rose. He’s in the form of his life, attacking pins with forensic precision, chipping and putting like a dream. He knows Portrush like the back of his hand, and he’ll have the support of pretty much everyone at this famous old links today. Everything suggests he’ll be the one lifting the Claret Jug for Ireland later this afternoon.
It’s never quite as easy as that, though, is it? For a start, Lowry’s trying to win the first major of his career. He may well have had a sleepless night, considering how he’s been in this position before, four clear going into the final round of the 2016 US Open at Oakmont. He stumbled to a 76 that day. The love of the home gallery comes with added pressure. He’ll also want to avoid the stigma of shipping a big lead on the 20th anniversary of Jean van de Velde’s infamous collapse at Carnoustie, the Frenchman having tossed away a five-shot, third-round advantage in 1999. And then there’s the incoming wind and rain, which could wreak unpredictable havoc.
Koepka, in hot pursuit, nearly tossed away a seven-stroke lead of his own at the PGA a couple of months ago, and was more than happy to spell out the dangers that lie ahead for Lowry. “The last time Shane had the lead at Oakmont we saw what happened. In links golf, all of a sudden you get a couple of bad bounces or get in a couple of bunkers. At Bethpage it went very quickly. Bad weather happened. The last 15 holes were very, very windy, especially that back nine.”
If a steely-eyed operator like Koepka can feel the heat, anyone can, so nothing’s certain. But hey. If Lowry keeps his cool like he did yesterday afternoon amid an emotional storm, and draws on his experience playing in a real one – let’s be fair, he’ll have played a fair few rounds in Irish wind and rain before – he’ll take some catching. One way or another, it promises to be one of the most memorable days in the entire history of Irish golf. God speed, everyone, and may the best man drink liberally from the auld jug tonight. It’s on!
-16: Lowry
-12: Fleetwood
-10: Holmes
-9: Koepka, Rose
-8: Fowler, Westwood
-7: Willett, Rahm, Finau, Spieth
-6: Stenson, Noren, Kuchar, Frittelli, Putnam, Smith
-5: Schauffele
The tee times: (all BST, all brought forward in the hope of avoiding most of this afternoon’s wind and rain)
7.32am: Ashton Turner
7.42am: Shubhankar Sharma, Kiradech Aphibarnrat
7.52am: Nino Bertasio, Eddie Pepperell
8.02am: Thorbjorn Olesen, Paul Waring
8.12am: Branden Grace, Jason Kokrak
8.22am: Callum Shinkwin, Jim Furyk
8.32am: Bubba Watson, Kevin Streelman
8.42am: Bernd Wiesberger, Kyle Stanley
8.57am: Paul Casey, Benjamin Hebert
9.07am: Matt Wallace, Adam Hadwin
9.17am: Thomas Pieters, Francesco Molinari
9.27am: Louis Oosthuizen, Andrew Wilson
9.37am: Yosuke Asaji, Stewart Cink
9.47am: Joost Luiten, Doc Redman
9.57am: Ryan Fox, Inn-choon Hwang
10.07am: Charley Hoffman, Yuki Inamori
10.17am: Ernie Els, Lucas Bjerregaard
10.32am: Aaron Wise, Lucas Glover
10.42am: Sergio Garcia, Patrick Cantlay
10.52am: Mikko Korhonen, Dustin Johnson
11.02am: Robert Macintyre, Rory Sabbatini
11.12am: Romain Langasque, Kevin Kisner
11.22am: Graeme McDowell, Tom Lewis
11.32am: Erik Van Rooyen, Justin Harding
11.42am: Tyrrell Hatton, Webb Simpson
11.52am: Byeong-Hun An, Matthew Fitzpatrick
12.07pm: Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas
12.17pm: Russell Knox, Sang Hyun Park
12.27pm: Xander Schauffele, Cameron Smith
12.37pm: Dylan Frittelli, Andrew Putnam
12.47pm: Alex Noren, Matt Kuchar
12.57pm: Henrik Stenson, Jordan Spieth
13.07pm: Tony Finau, Jon Rahm
13.17pm: Danny Willett, Lee Westwood
13.27pm: Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler
13.37pm: JB Holmes, Brooks Koepka
13.47pm: Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry