Iran and the United States have been locked in an escalating war of words in recent weeks as Tehran retaliates against US-imposed economic sanctions. Tensions rocketed today after Iran said it had seized a “foreign vessel” and its 12 crew for smuggling fuel in the Gulf. Although Iran’s Revolutionary Guards did not name the country at fault, the latest development follows similar attacks on tankers in recent weeks. Tehran has been in a retaliatory mood since President Donald Trump stepped up its sanctions following the downing of a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz June.
The game of cat-and-mouse between the two foes means the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), now hangs by a thread.
Russia has intervened to join JCPOA’s other members to try to ease tensions by meeting with France in crisis talks.
The remaining parties in the deal are Britain, Russia, China and France – plus Germany – after the US pulled out last year and reintroduced sanctions against Iran.
The Kremlin said in a statement earlier: “Both sides underlined that the (nuclear deal) is the most important factor for ensuring security in the Middle East and maintaining the nuclear non-proliferation regime.”
Can Iran nuclear deal be saved? Why does it matter?
Iran expert Dr Ali Alavi, a teaching fellow at SOAS University of London (School of Oriental and African Studies), has suggested the deal can still be saved as long as the P4+1 countries can persuade Mr Trump to come back on board.
He told Express.co.uk: “European states need to keep up pressure on Washington in order to convince the Trump administration that the agreement is in the benefit of all states.
“If they cannot do this they need to step up their initiatives and provide a mechanism that can keep the JCPOA alive.
“For Iran, the most important thing is to see the continuation of their exports in oil and energy.”
Tehran has already reneged the deal by increasing its amounts of uranium enrichment as sanctions start to bite.
Allied forces are concerned the Middle Eastern nation could develop nuclear weapons, although Iran has continuedly denied this.
Dr Alavi said President Trump’s “conflicting messages” in making negotiation requests with Tehran while implementing economic sanctions makes the situation “more serious to resolve”.
He added: “There is a proper sense of mistrust between the US and Iran.
“In Iran, there are two camps – the hardliners and the reformers.
“The hardliners were against the deal in the first place. Trump’s withdrawal from it fed them with messages for propaganda.”
He added should the deal fail then “it will give more power to the hardliners in both countries”.
This could seriously escalate tensions in the Middle East as it might pave the way for Iran to build nuclear weapons causing its neighbours to follow suit.
Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has already warned this could cause a “very toxic and dangerous situation”.
Dr Alavi said the situation in Iran also faces being manipulated by Saudi Arabia which he says “is hoping for a conflict” as a means of fighting its own war against the Houthis in Yemen.
If this sounds like the world is hurtling towards the brink of World War 3 then Mr Trump’s egotism could unusually save the day – if he wins the 2020 Presidential election.
Dr Alavi explained: “If President Trump remains in power after the election he may rejoin the JCPOA but to rebrand himself as its the saviour because for Trump it is not only about the deal but about how the markets are doing and how Americans are reacting to that.
“The US public have no appetite at all for another war and Trump is very aware of that.”