Tonight Game of Thrones fans will finally see George RR Martin’s planned ending for A Song of Ice and Fire’s A Dream of Spring. The 70-year-old author hasn’t even finished The Winds of Winter yet, but we’ll soon know who he intended for the Iron Throne all along. But with Martin hopefully close to finishing the penultimate book, when will the book series finally be completed? Well, a statistical analysis of his release dates may have the answer.
Last year a “bored” fan performed a regression analysis of book numbers vs original release dates to predict when The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring will release.
Posted by Reddit user King_of_Pyjamas, the quadratic model used managed to predict the first five books’ release dates with a margin for error of just 165 days.
A Dance with Dragons was released on July 12, 2011, and the model predicted July 7, 2011, so when should fans expect The Winds of Winter?
Well apparently November 21, 2018, but we’re obviously beyond that date now.
However, taking into account a margin of error of 165 days around now would still be within the successful perimeter.
Of course, only this week Martin shot down rumours he had already finished the last two books and was saving them for release after Game of Thrones ended.
He wrote on is blog: “DREAM is not even begun; I am not going to start writing volume seven until I finish volume six.”
But presuming The Winds of Winter is almost done as it’s been eight years since his last book in the series came out, then maybe a release date will be announced after the Game of Thrones finale tonight?
Whatever the case, the statistical analysis reckons A Dream of Spring will be published around September 29, 2027.
Martin would be almost 80-years-old by then, but it’s possible the book will arrive before this.
After all, with Game of Thrones finished there will be fewer distractions for the author.
Although, there are the planned TV series prequels and perhaps Martin will have a lack of motivation since fans will know his ending.