Brexit stockpiling sees BOOST to UK economy: GDP grows by 0.5 percent in first quarter

Preliminary figures from The Office of National Statistics (ONS) revealed the UK economy was up in January to March this year, compared to the last three months of 2018. The growth rate was up from the 0.2 percent recorded in October to December last year. The ONS said the boost was largely down to stockpiling as businesses continued to keep a firm eye on Brexit developments ahead of the original deadline of 29 March. However, economists have suggested this could mean orders will be reduced later down the line.

The rate at which inventories increased was the highest for any G7 country.

Compared to the same quarter a year ago, GDP in the UK was up 1.8 percent.

The new figures also showed production output shot up by 1.4 percent in the three months, driven by the biggest rise in manufacturing since the third quarter of 1988.

Manufacturing recorded a 2.2 percent rise in manufacturing.

But services output growth slowed to 0.3 percent, despite strengthening retail sales.

Construction was up one percent.

Following a full year of decline in 2018, business investment recovered to post a 0.5 percent increase in the first quarter of 2019.

But the ONS warned that the figures could be revised, with some external evidence suggesting confidence remained weak during the period.

The Government’s consumption increased by 1.4 percent, up slightly on 1.3 percent in the final quarter of last year.

The ONS data dump also showed that the trade deficit widened to 3.4 percent of nominal GDP in the quarter.

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to EY Item Club, said: “Prolonged uncertainty is likely to impact on businesses’ willingness to invest and commit to any new major projects.

“There is also likely to be a hit to economic activity from some unwinding of the stockpiling that occurred in Q1.”

Mr Archer also warned that consumer spending could come under pressure as the economy fails to pick up steam.

He said: “Many employers will be keen to limit their labour costs, which will also impact employment growth, and there are signs in recent surveys that the growth in pay awards has already levelled off.

“Consumers may therefore be cautious about making major purchases and the recent strong retail sales growth might falter.”

source: express.co.uk