Climate experts at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in California believe natural processes will offset rising sea levels by the year 2250. Scientists currently estimate Antarctica’s melting ice sheet contributes to between 20 and 25 percent of global sea levels rising. The dire figure is largely caused by warming water temperatures, which affect the integrity of Antarctica’s ice sheet and glaciers. Previous climate forecasts for the next 500 years have found a rapidly expanding area of ice melt affecting Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier.
NASA’s refined climate models, however, suggest the ice melt will slow down over the next 300 years.
As a result, predictions about Antarctica’s future contributions to rising sea levels could be off by a whole 29 percent.
The results of the study were presented this week in the journal Science under the title “Slowdown in Antarctic mass loss from solid Earth and sea-level feedbacks”.
NASA’s Eric Larour, who lead the study, said: “We found that around the year 2250, some of these solid Earth processes started to offset the melting of the ice sheet and the consequent sea level rise.”
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Over the next 100 years, retreating ice shelf predictions are within a one percent margin of former projections.
But further into the future, processes which take into account the so-called elastic rebound of the bedrock under the ice, show slower melt.
Dr Larour said: “Unlike most current models, we included solid Earth processes — such as the elastic rebound of the bedrock under the ice and the impact of changes in sea level very close to the ice sheet.
“We also examined these models at a much higher resolution than is typically used — we zoomed in on areas of bedrock that were about one kilometre instead of the usual 20 kilometres.”
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And Erik Ivins, who co-authored the study, said: “One of the main things we learned was that as grounded ice retreats inclined, the bedrock under it lifts up elastically.
“It’s similar to how a sofa cushion decompresses when you remove our weight from it.
“The process slows down the retreat of the ice sheet and ultimately the amount of melting.”
However, the US space agency scientists noted the study’s results are not necessarily as good as they may sound.
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Dr Larour likened the findings to a truck travelling downhill but encountering speed bumps along the way.
He said: “The truck will slow down a bit but will ultimately continue down the hill.”
With this in mind, the NASA expert said the Antarctic ice sheet will continue to melt and contribute to rising sea levels.
Dr Larour added scientists need to reach “resolutions high enough” to chart these speed bumps to better understanding the effects melting ice has on sea level rise around the globe.”