The first two days of the Grand National were distinctly so-so in terms of the weather, but it was a bright, clear dawn for National day itself and conditions are expected to stay that way, with highs of around 15C as we draw closer to the big race at 5.15pm BST.
A fine and memorable afternoon is in prospect, in other words, though runners that need to get their toes in are likely to find their chance slowly ebbing away as the day goes on. The official going on the Grand National course is currently good-to-soft and soft around the Canal Turn but it could well be edging towards good in seven hours’ time and this is unlikely to be a National that is won by the dourest stayer in the field.
As even the most casual once-a-year punters are surely now aware, the market for today’s race revolves around a single horse: Tiger Roll, last year’s winner and quite possibly the first horse since Red Rum in 1974 to win back-to-back Nationals. He has drifted slightly in the betting this morning but is still just 9-2 across the board and while he might edge out further still if there is serious money for the second-favourite, Rathvinden, he could just as easily tighten up if some serious punters decide that 9-2 is a price worth taking.
Back in the days when the on-course betting market was king, I suspect the layers would have been out to get Tiger Roll in a serious way and his price would have drifted markedly in the run-up to the race. Luck in running is a huge factor in the National, anything can go wrong at any stage in the nine or so minutes it takes to run and Tiger Roll is one of those horses that might have been at his best on his first attempt at these fences.
These days, though, it is all about Betfair and if the major players there decide a horse is worth backing at the price, they will. An interesting aspect of Frankel’s extraordinary run of 14 straight wins on the Flat a few years ago was the willingness of punters to take almost any price, for instance before the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood when he opened in the market at around 1-8 and was backed down to start at 1-20.
In all honesty, I have no idea which way his odds will go in the 15 minutes before the race. He could set off at 3-1 or 6-1, but if you are backing him with a bookie this morning, make sure that they are offering “best odds guaranteed” just in case he drifts.
There has been so much focus on Tiger Roll that other stories have been somewhat overlooked in the run-up to this year’s race. There is an outside chance at best that we will see the first National success for a female rider this afternoon, as Rachael Blackmore (who rides 100-1 chance Valseur Lido) and Lizzie Kelly (Tea For Two) are both on long-shots (though Kelly’s mount Tea For Two attracted some support yesterday and is now top-priced at 50-1).
Jury Duty, a former winner of the American Grand National – basically a hurdles event over two-and-a-half miles – is another runner with an outstanding back-story, having been bought by his owners after winning a couple of point-to-points in Ireland. The syndicate was set up by the late Ciaran Collins, a lifelong friend of Jury Duty’s jockey Robbie Power, who died shortly after his horse’s first big win, at Punchestown in November 2017. His brother, Shane, will be there to pick up the trophy if Jury Duty comes home in front today.
Gary O’Brien, a familiar face to viewers of Racing TV, will need to be excused from his punditry duties for a while if Folsom Blue, in which he has a share, emerges as the winner. Good luck too to all the commentators on the race, including Richard Hoiles, the impeccable caller for ITV Racing, as they try to work out which of the seven runners in the colours of Gigginstown Stud, Tiger Roll among them, is which.
There is more about Tiger Roll and the inevitable comparisons with Red Rum here, while his jockey Davy Russell talks about his big-race preparations (or lack thereof) here. Chris Cook’s tips for the National and the rest of today’s card are here, and this live blog is the place to come for all the National news that’s fit to print (or commit to the internet) in the run-up to the 172nd renewal of the world’s greatest steeplechase.