Germany to CRUMBLE under hard Brexit – shock stats reveal HUGE damage by no deal

Research from the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) predicted a massive 102,900 jobs – or 0.24 percent of the country’s total workforce – would be under threat if the UK tumbles out of the European Union without an agreement. Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s chief negotiator for Brexit, warned the bloc must take “emergency measures” to fight any significant damage caused as a result. He said: “A no-deal would certainly be a bad thing for all – for Europe and the UK. It would mean confusion in several ways.

“In addition, we must take the so-called ’emergency measures’ to limit the disruption caused by a no-deal Brexit.”

Germany’s manufacturing sector would be most at risk because of uncertainties around future trading relationships, with the lucrative motor sector taking much of the punishment.

Germany sold 770,000 vehicles to the UK in 2017, with the industry having the third highest car production in the world and fourth highest total motor vehicle production.

In the same year, the German sector had an annual output of six million and a 31.5 percent share of the European Union.

The study has forecasted Wolfsburg, home to Volkswagen, would suffer the most from a collapse in exports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Five hundred jobs – 0.4 percent of the workforce in the German city – would be under threat.

Germany’s medium-sized companies, regarded as vital for the country’s once-bustling economy, would also be massively exposed to the impacts of a no-deal Brexit because these companies export a number of niche technologies.

Oliver Holtemöller, a lead researcher in the study, said: “In no other country is the effect on total employment as great as in Germany, where around 100,000 people are affected.”

In January, the German car industry issued a stern warning over the huge impact on jobs if Britain is unable to strike a settlement deal with the EU.

German auto industry association VDA, which represents the likes of BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedez-Benz parent Daimler, said: “The consequences of a no deal would be fatal.

“Without an orderly and practical solution for business, jobs in the car industry, particularly on the British side, are on the line.”

BMW, which builds 60 percent of its Mini cars at a plant in Oxford, warned: “Uncertainty is not good for business. We must therefore continue to prepare for the worst-case scenario, which is what a no-deal Brexit would represent.

“We strongly urge all relevant stakeholders to do everything possible in order to establish much needed certainty for our business and to maintain the truly frictionless trade on which our international production network is based.”

But it wouldn’t just be Germany being forced to take a huge hit on jobs in the event of a no-deal Brexit, with some of the world’s biggest countries and economies preparing to take a huge hit.

The study from IWH predicted 58,000 jobs would be at risk in China, 49,800 in France, 46,500 in Poland and 46,200 in Italy.

Britain’s exports to the EU in 2017 amounted to around £161billion, but a no-deal Brexit would present huge hurdles fir the exchange of goods and services because of the split from the EU single market and customs union.

In November, the UK Government warned that Brexit would see Britain’s GDP slump by 3.9 percent over 15 years, or 9.3 percent with a no-deal Brexit.

According to German weekly newspaper Die Zeit, trucks arriving at Dover would need to be thoroughly checked, as the UK would no longer be a member of the EU single market or customs union.

Additional reporting by Monika Pallenberg.

source: express.co.uk