Kyler Murray is more than just a small guy playing a big man’s game. Unfortunately for Murray, an exceptional talent who is likely to be the first player ever drafted in the first round in both the MLB and NFL, the conversation has, and will continue to be, all about his size. Measured at just under 5ft 10in by his college, Oklahoma, Murray will be the shortest quarterback in the NFL if, and when, a team signs him. It’s a height that got this year’s Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman, a 5ft 10in quarterback out of Kent State, converted to wide receiver.
A quarterback’s height is a big deal because, well, it’s a big deal. Though sports are in an era increasingly dominated by performance analytics, there isn’t a single shred of evidence that says a shorter quarterback can’t succeed. And short quarterbacks have succeeded in the NFL: Russell Wilson (5ft 11in) and Drew Brees (6ft) have both won Super Bowls.
Despite this general lack of support, the only QB shorter than 6ft 1in to be drafted in the first round of the last 15 NFL drafts was Johnny Manziel (5ft 11in) in 2014. The accepted logic is that quarterbacks need to be tall to see over the offensive line and to avoid having passes batted down by the defense. But consider this, according to Pro Football Focus, Murray had just five passes batted down last season in college football, tied for the fewest among the four quarterbacks in the top 50 prospects. The other three are 6ft 3in or taller. Murray also played Heisman Trophy-winning football behind one of the tallest offensive lines in college football (the shortest regular starter was 6ft 4in), a group likely as tall as any in the NFL.
Along with the other top prospects, Murray has accepted an invitation to this week’s NFL combine. His speed and strength will be measured along with his height and weight – the so-called underwear Olympics – so this may be the most watched height assessment in the history of sport.
But Dan Orlovsky, an ESPN football analyst and former NFL quarterback, believes the combine will tell us little useful information. “At the top of the draft, there is a big focus on the physical,” says Orlovsky, “and for the other positions, the physical qualities matter. But they’re the least important thing for quarterbacks.”
Orlovsky, a 13-year NFL veteran with four different teams, believes that a quarterback’s understanding of the game makes up for any perceived physical shortcoming. “A quarterback can minimize a height problem by becoming obsessed with his craft, by understanding how to find open throwing lanes and creating space and sightlines to throw.”
What’s more, there are many factors that influence a quarterback’s ability to throw over, or through, the line – height, arm length and release point all play a role. Indeed, for Orlovsky, Murray’s biggest physical question mark is his weight, not his height. Even in the 2019 version of the NFL, with considerable protection in place for quarterbacks, physics are against a 195lbs quarterback against a 280lbs defensive end. “Quarterbacks needed to be bigger 15 to 20 years ago, they had to look like Big Ben [Roethlisberger] because they took a beating every game” says Orlovsky. “Still I think it would help if Murray came to the combine at 205 or 210lbs.”
Other than that, there aren’t many important physical or performance metrics that come out of the combine. There is little evidence that the attributes measured at the combine – speed, vertical jump, strength – translate to performance on the field, for any position. An article in the Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research found that combine measures had “zero correlation with quarterback success.” Even to the point that rookie quarterback ratings and 40-yard sprint time correlation went in the “wrong” direction: ie a higher quarterback rating was associated with a slower 40-yard sprint times.
Even the position-specific drills offer little usefulness. “The throwing at the combine is outdated, many of the routes are no longer used and the quarterbacks don’t make any throws from the shotgun, which is now used 70% of the time in the NFL,” said Orlovsky.
Orlovsky believes that Murray displays traits, ones more critical for NFL success, that won’t be on display at the combine. “Many quarterbacks need to have perfect feet to be accurate, but that’s a situation that occurs maybe four times a game. Murray is highly accurate when his feet aren’t perfect, an important ability since most of the time quarterbacks don’t have the opportunity to perfectly set their feet before throwing.”
When a player, especially a quarterback, stands to get drafted in the top of the first round, every interaction will be scrutinized. Psychological and social factors are critically important to teams, especially for a quarterback, who will be asked to lead a multimillion-dollar corporation.
Murray is an interesting player because he defies many of his physical descriptions. He’s short but threw for over 4,000 yards, many of them in the pocket. He is exceptionally fast and last season rushed for 1,000 yards, but his game isn’t defined by speed. Basically, he’s not just an exceptional athlete, he’s a quarterback. “Kyler Murray’s greatest strength is throwing the football,” says Orlovsky.
He is, in short, the prototypical NFL quarterback.