It is not uncommon to introduce themes every now and then – we often use them at Harlequins – and one we’ve used recently is called decapitation strike. It’s a military term and it’s all about targeting the key individuals of an organisation and taking advantage of the knock-on effect – watching everything else fall away if you can eliminate their leaders. It could well be a key theme for Wales to target England’s half-backs in a similar fashion on Saturday.
Owen Farrell is so influential in terms of how he organises England’s attacking and territorial shape, and he and Ben Youngs would be the two Wales targets. That may look like the Wales scrum-half coming hard off the defensive line, making sure that Farrell has to pass early, negating the ability to bring Billy Vunipola and Manu Tuilagi into the game thus winning the gainline battle. If Wales make him play early then they can bring their defensive line up and shut down England’s options.
We always talk about painting pictures and the key for Wales is keeping them different. By that I mean that if there is a lineout, scrum or phase play Farrell may look up and see one picture before the ball goes in. Wales want to make sure that the next time he looks up the picture has changed. A lot of the time teams will defend tight and then once the ball goes in they’ve shifted two or three metres. That can force the attacking team back on the inside or force them to kick where you want them to.
As well as England’s kicking game, Wales will also have to try and nullify their linespeed. And both their fly-halves have the kicking ability to make England’s defenders think twice. Dan Biggar likes the middle-of-the-road high ball that he often sends up and chases himself, or sends up for Liam Williams to chase, and Gareth Anscombe has a very good variety of attacking kicks.
It may just be one or two over the top but that may just mean we see Henry Slade sitting off a bit more to cover the space in behind. That, in turn, would stop England’s outside backs coming up hard as we saw especially against Ireland, because they are thinking about that kick coming in and it can create a soft hinge around their outside defence. It must be something Wales will look at because England are so improved in terms of their outside defence. Variety will be the key for Wales.
And they will back themselves. Let’s not forget Wales have won 11 matches in a row but they will have to tidy a few things up if they are going to make it 12. In their first two matches they have kicked too aimlessly, not on their terms, not when they are comfortable and have an organised chase, and there have been too many handling errors.
They have to be much more accurate because England have an ability to turn their defensive pressure into attacking opportunities. They’ve been the best in the tournament at stinging teams with their transitional attack – Jonny May’s first try against France, with Elliot Daly taking advantage of turnover ball, is a good example of that.
I don’t expect England to deviate from their gameplan at all. It’s a very effective way to win Six Nations matches, based around territory, tactical kicking and power. Of course Mako Vunipola’s absence is a big blow for them in that sense but I do believe they have enough ball-carriers in the team to share the extra workload that comes from his absence. When it comes to kicking they will want to keep the ball away from Williams so I expect George North to be targeted aerially.
We will hear a lot from the coaches and players about passion and the effect of the crowd but when it comes down to it, that will not win the game. It’s the tactical side – what are Wales going to do, what are England going to do, and I think the area of the game that will be most competitive is the breakdown. You have guys like Tom Curry, Mark Wilson and Billy Vunipola going up against Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi and Ross Moriarty. Will it be Youngs or Gareth Davies digging around for the ball? That will go a long way to deciding the match.
And it’s not just turning the ball over. I keep emphasising the point but it’s about slowing the ball down to get numbers on their feet with appropriate spacing so the tacklers can get off the line. That either forces the attack deep, as we saw with Johnny Sexton against England getting deeper and deeper, or they try and force the issue and get flatter, bringing two-man hits into play and allowing for more dominant tackles.
I think England just have the edge as they are just so comfortable in terms of knowing exactly what the coaches want from them. Wales will without doubt have a crack – they’ll have a really good go, they have to challenge this English defence in a way it hasn’t been in the first two weeks, they have a backline that can cause problems and wingers who can score tries. And if they can force England to be ill disciplined they can put pressure on in the red zone.
Ultimately England’s power game will be the deciding factor in this match.