A lack of volume, a string of historic patterns and a growing market apathy had combined to send BTC tumbling from a reasonably strong sideways movement along $6,500 for much of 2018 to below $4,000 over the festive period.
When it crumbled into $3,400 a couple of weeks ago, the general consensus was that a cliff edge was waiting just around the corner.
And, to all intents and purposes, that’s how it looked.
Frankly, that’s how it could still be viewed.
Science and history seldom have a place at the table of market forecasting for cryptocurrency, leaving the old adage about ‘expect the unexpected’ a cliché that regularly haunts traders.
It could well fall into the abyss overnight – for all the reasons mentioned above – but there’s something about the behaviour within the current markets that could start to gently fan the flames of optimism.
When BTC took a clumsy stumble down from $3,500 last month it dropped a level by $100 overnight. Curiously, that is precisely where it has stayed since.
Everything that anyone has ever known about markets will tell you that shouldn’t happen.
Something can’t plummet so sharply without creating a volatility that ought to drive a price quickly north or south from the step where it fell to.
However, that’s not happened.
It’s dipped under it, it’s moved higher, but it simply can’t get break away from it – it’s as if bitcoin has got its underwear elastic snagged on $3,400.
Something has to give soon.
Instinct alone would suggest that can’t be avoided.
Yet as we raise an eyebrow of suspicion at the trading volumes etc, it can’t be overlooked how hard BTC has fought to stay near $3,400 and bought itself time to potentially build for something big.
It was only a few days ago that several observers were suggesting this psychological barrier of $3,400 was akin to the top of a tall building which bitcoin was clinging to – Harold Lloyd-style – by its ever-weakening fingernails.
It may yet be that this lack of movement has bought investors the time needed to build for something else entirely, meaning plenty of thought is going into the theory that BTC is about to strap a rocket to its back and head skywards once more with risk rewards favourable for upward movement.
While the majority verdict dictates this is a false hope – citing that capitulation would be welcomed even if were to just be the catalyst for clearing out the hundreds of needless altcoins which are flooding the market – there is growing opinion that a green spike is around the corner.
This could yet prove to be a crucial week in history of bitcoin.
Coin Rivet is a website bringing news, information, analysis, opinion and insight from the fast-moving blockchain world.