As Warren Gatland was using the Six Nations launch to make a case for Wales winning the title, France’s head coach shrugged his shoulders when asked what his side’s prospects were for a first title since 2010.
When the two sides open the tournament at the Stade de France on Friday night, in one corner will be a settled Wales side armed with nine successive victories and in the other opponents who lost against Fiji in their last game and who are using only five players out of the 23 involved in their last outing in the Six Nations, in Cardiff last March.
It is a remarkable turnover, even by France’s standards. It has long been said of Les Bleus that you never know which team is going to turn up. It could be referring to selection rather than the temperamental nature of a team that used to be renowned for its inconsistency, but Jacques Brunel had been in charge for only a few months then.
The head coach is changing the balance of a side that since the last World Cup has scored 48 tries in 29 Tests against tier one nations, reaching four only once, against Italy. A team full of bash has been bashful with ball in hand and by dropping Mathieu Bastareaud, a bulwark in midfield, to pair the 19‑year‑old Romain Ntamack with Wesley Fofana, he is sending a clear message to his players.
Brunel is rugby’s version of the Leicester City manager, Claude Puel, looking and speaking like a bank manager turning down a request for an overdraft, but under him there are signs of a French revolution. Their pack is still huge but two of the forward replacements, the front-rowers Julien Marchand and Demba Bamba, were in the side that won the World Rugby Under-20 Championship last year, along with Ntamack.
A year ago, Brunel was asked what had happened to the flair for which France used to be renowned. He wondered whether the past was being romanticised, but the game’s cavaliers have turned into roundheads. If he is not looking to turn back time, he is trying to fit Les Bleus into the present where merely being robust in defence is not enough.
Wales are further down the same route. Their first unbeaten autumn in the modern era was based on their defence rather than attack, but there were signs of significant progress. Gatland preferred Gareth Anscombe at fly-half to Dan Biggar, swapping a tactical kicker and zealous tackler for one who stood flatter and brought his outside backs into play earlier.
Wales adopted New Zealand’s tactic of extending the ruck when in possession by using the first man at the breakdown to propel himself forward. It gave their scrum-half more space and time and with Wales’s tight five forwards all comfortable with the ball in hand, there was a width to their attacks.
Liam Williams’s return to full‑back gives them a player who will be willing to exploit defensive gaps and mismatches and a fixture which for most of this decade has tended to be a relentless grind has the capacity to be more tactical and adventurous. France have removed their anchor, Bastareaud, while Wales, without Leigh Halfpenny, resisted any temptation to use Biggar as a goal‑kicking crutch.
“I am excited about where we are as a team,” said Gatland, who is in his 12th and final year as Wales’s head coach. “It promises to be a very tight Six Nations and if we have a good tournament it should help us at the end of the year. Everyone is talking about Ireland in the World Cup, but they will get New Zealand or South Africa in the quarter-finals while we are on the other side of the draw.”
Victory in Paris would give Wales momentum, something on which they thrive. They will need to move around the French forwards, widening the point of attack and keeping the ball in play, while dealing with the home side’s driving mauls.
France, at the end of a week when it has snowed in the French capital, have used the scrum as a source of penalties, but the game is at a point where only the most egregious offences attract the whistle in the quest for continuity. Both coaches have adapted to that which is why one of the tournament’s more sterile fixtures could produce some early spring flowers.