1) Rare away victories
Discounting matches against Italy, there were two away wins last year, both by Ireland. Twelve months before that just one, by England. On both occasions the side best equipped to win on their travels took the title so expect away victories to be at a premium again.
Take the first round of fixtures. Warren Gatland is bullish Wales can overcome France but Jacques Brunel’s side were a remarkable Johnny Sexton drop goal away from ensuring Ireland’s grand slam campaign didn’t even get off the ground last year. Such is Ireland’s form at home it is hard to see England succeeding where the All Blacks could not and it would be a fool to bet against Italy’s 17-match winless streak extending in Edinburgh. Further down the track, Ireland and Wales travel to Scotland and both lost on their last visits. Those two fixtures are likely to be pivotal.
2) Signs of a French resurgence
Ireland, Wales and England head into the championship ranked second, third and fourth in the world and wouldn’t it be a breath of fresh air if that’s how they finished. Or, in other words, and no disrespect to Scotland, but a sustained French challenge would do wonders for the tournament. Last year they were never really in contention but the three matches they lost were by a collective margin of nine points. Take away Sexton’s drop-goal, add in Francois Trinh-Duc’s missed sitter against Wales and things could have been very different. Only France could pick a squad without a single one of the backline starters against Ireland a year ago but Toulouse’s renaissance and Racing 92’s sustained excellence give hope France can add another dimension this year.
3) Brutality over beauty
Joe Schmidt is braced for a “brutal” match against England. Eddie Jones explained last autumn how “the game is getting longer and longer. The ball in play is not changing. It is becoming a real power game, real contest game”. The absence of Ben Te’o and Joe Cokanasiga may alter England’s thinking a touch but, if Munster’s recent win against Exeter is any sort of signpost, the match on Saturday will be unremitting in its physicality. The opening fixture on Friday will not be far behind. The players’ commitment will be commendable but let’s not kid ourselves that stripped of all narrative games such as that are dull.
4) Refereeing controversy
As sure as death and taxes, there will be controversy over decisions made by officials in the coming weeks. If the autumn is anything to go by, in spades. We can but hope they will not come to define matches, as was the case for England’s victory against South Africa and defeat by New Zealand because with the Six Nations on terrestrial TV the risk is that more casual fans will be alienated. That is not to insult anyone’s intelligence but when two former referees are giving totally different opinions days after the event, the size of the muddle is clear. World Rugby’s TMO directives came about because so many referrals during the 2015 World Cup was one of the major complaints. In trying to appeal to more casual fans, the unintended consequence has been the opposite.
5) Le crunch for the women’s title
As was the case last year the women’s Six Nations will be a two-horse race between England and France. Last year’s match in Grenoble was a thriller – France edging home by a point – and was watched by a crowd of more than 17,000. England welcome France on the second weekend to Doncaster – there will not be anywhere near that number but credit England all the same for spreading the gospel far and wide. England’s full-time contracts also add a bit of bite to the competition – only last week France were adamant their system of part-time contracts was preferable – so it will be a match not to be missed.
6) Drop goals galore?
There were two drop goals last year, two the year before that and just one in 2016. Contrast that with November when there were four in matches involving the Six Nations teams and a match-winning fifth at Twickenham to bring down the curtain on the autumn internationals. The first of last year’s two was pivotal and unforgettable, the second may well have been significant if Trinh-Duc had shown similar accuracy with his late penalty in Cardiff. It is World Cup year and as a result drop goals tend to come back into fashion so do not be surprised to see a few more.