By Carmen Sesin
MIAMI — After an unprecedented week in Venezuela that saw violent mass demonstrations, the rise of self-declared interim leader Juan Guaidó, and his support by numerous countries, all eyes are on the armed forces and whether they remain loyal to Maduro.
The standoff between Maduro supporters and the opposition has taken Venezuela into a new chapter of turmoil and the armed forces have taken center stage.
Government supporters and the opposition are vying for the military’s backing and who they support will determine the outcome in Venezuela.
“The military has the guns,” said Brian Fonseca, director of Florida International University’s policy institute and an expert on the Venezuelan military. “The military institution is the gatekeeper to either continuity or change.”
In a country that has been caught in a downward spiral for years with growing political discontent, skyrocketing inflation and shortages in food and medicine, it’s the armed forces that have been key to Maduro’s hold of power.
The question of what happens with the military has taken increased urgency as the country’s political crisis appears to have reached a turning point. Over two dozen protesters have died in the past week and more mass mobilizations are planned for this week.
Antonio Rivero, a former Venezuelan general exiled in Miami, keeps in touch with military officials in his native country. He believes it’s unlikely the military will move away from Maduro.
The situation with the armed forces can take a number of directions, Rivero said. But he thinks the most likely outcome is that lower and mid-ranking officials take a position of disobedience or combat against those in power.
“This is the scenario that is gaining more traction,” he said.
Rivero did warn that “any confrontation can lead to a civil war.”
But he said if there is conflict, it would not be prolonged.
He said a drawn out war would need “50/50 support” from the two different sides, but believes most Venezuelans want Maduro out.
The socialist successor to the late Hugo Chávez, Maduro was sworn in on Jan. 10 for a second, six-year term following an election that was criticized internationally for being illegitimate.
Last week, Guaidó declared he had assumed interim presidential powers and vowed to hold fresh elections to restore democracy. Countries around the world have recognized Guaidó as the South American country’s rightful leader, and he is calling for a protest on Wednesday.
What could be the military’s next steps?
José Antonio Colina is a former Venezuelan army lieutenant who fled to Miami in 2003. He now heads Veppex, a Venezuelan exile organization.
“The possibility that the armed forces will completely disavow Nicolas Maduro and support Juan Guaidó, is becoming less likely as time goes by,” Colina said.
He thinks protests should be concentrated outside army barracks in order to put more pressure on officers to defect.
The U.S. has been ratcheting up pressure on Maduro to cede power to the opposition. John Bolton said Monday “the president has made it clear that all options are on the table,” leaving open the possibility of a U.S. military intervention.
Fonseca thinks “U.S. military intervention is unlikely and would only be used as an absolute last resort to protect lives.”
So far, the only military uprising that has taken place in Venezuela was last week when two dozen officers attacked a National Guard outpost in Caracas. The small scale revolt, that occurred before Guaidó proclaimed himself interim leader, was quelled by the government.
However, Bolton said “our assessment based on the numerous contacts on the ground is that the rank and file of the Venezuelan military is acutely aware of the desperate economic conditions in the country and we think they look for ways to support the National Assembly government.”
The Trump administration also imposed sweeping sanctions Monday on the state oil company, PDVSA. It’s the toughest financial measure taken so far against Maduro and the aim is to prevent the government from siphoning off funds from the oil company.
Maduro says Guaidó is taking part in a coup directed by the Trump administration and has promised to stay in office. He is backed by Russia and China who have bankrolled his government.
Fonseca said, there are a number of possible scenarios that include the military moving away from Maduro and establishing a junta, or recognizing Guaidó as the interim leader. He said the military can also fracture, leading to a civil conflict.
In the last scenario, “it comes down to who controls what assets of the military. If you have a group of highly motivated non-commissioned officers with limited material support, they can only fight so hard, especially if they’re fighting more resourced units,” said Fonseca, giving as an example if the air force is up against the army and the national guard.
“It really depends on how it fractures and where it splits and where those lines of allegiance lie,” he said.
Supporters of Guaidó launched a campaign to try to lure soldiers by handing them leaflets describing a proposed amnesty law that would protect them from trying to overthrow Maduro.
Maduro, in a show of force Sunday, watched military exercises, alongside Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino. Maduro said it showed he has the backing of the military and that the armed forces are ready to defend the country.
The military is planning larger exercises from Feb. 10 to 15 that Maduro described as the “most important in the history of Venezuela.”
Two Venezuelan government officials in the U.S. have abandoned Maduro recently, including the country’s military attaché in Washington, Col. Jose Luis Silva.
Meanwhile, Canada called an emergency meeting for the 14-nation Lima Group to discuss options for Venezuela. The meeting will be held Feb. 4 in Ottawa. The group was created in Lima, Perú in 2017 to try to help resolve the crisis in Venezuela. Most of the countries, except Mexico, have thrown their support behind Guaidó.
“Right now Guaidó has legitimacy but he has no power. Maduro’s legitimacy is being attacked, but he has the power and that’s all because of where the military sits in the equation,” Fonseca said.
FOLLOW NBC LATINO ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER AND INSTAGRAM.