Ascot are hoping a private forecast of rain at the track on Friday is correct after just four runners, headed by the outstanding Altior, were declared for Saturday’s feature Clarence House Chase on Monday.
The possibility of good ground by the weekend could prompt the connections of all four to consider carefully whether even a first prize of £85,000 is worth the risk of jarring up their horse with Cheltenham’s Festival meeting within sight.
Ascot’s going is currently good-to-soft and good in places, and clerk of the course Chris Stickels said that if there is no rain before Saturday, it will be good all over by the weekend.
“I spoke to [Ascot’s private forecaster] John Kettley an hour ago,” Stickels said, “and he’s pretty convinced we’re going to see 4mm to 5mm of rain from Friday through to Saturday.
There is a rain threat out in the Atlantic and many forecasts think it will hold to the west but his view is that it will be with us by Friday and that would be a great help.”
Willie Mullins, trainer of second favourite Un De Sceaux, said at the weekend that the plan was to run but that he would be “keeping an eye” on the weather in the run-up, while Joe Tizzard, assistant to third favourite Fox Norton’s trainer Colin, said on Monday that while the chaser was “declared with an intention to run”, he “can’t be too positive at this stage”.
Tizzard added: “We’re excited about running him and he’s fit and well and ready for a run. It would tell us a lot about where we could be going at Cheltenham, but we’ve got to mind him a little bit, so do we hang on and go for the Game Spirit [at Newbury in February]?”
All four of the possible runners are previous winners at the Grade One level, although Diego Du Charmil, last season’s Maghull Novice Chase winner at Aintree, was comprehensively beaten by Altior at Kempton Park’s Christmas meeting. Un De Sceaux has won the race for the last three yearswhile Fox Norton, the Melling Chase winner in 2017, is unraced since being pulled up in the King George on Boxing Day 2017.
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