After falling below $4,000 before Christmas, bitcoin never looked like seriously breaking back through the $3,900 line, threatening a brief recovery only once in that time. This morning, the decade-old original cryptocurrency – brainchild of the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009 – stood at $3,800. It has been lingering there or thereabouts for nigh on three weeks as it bounces along what many still see as a path of descent. At one point between Christmas and New Year, bitcoin plummeted to $3,500 before a curious leap propelled it to $3,900 the following day.
Fingers were crossed, encouragement was shouted from the sidelines and hearts were in mouths as the anticipation of a fresh break upwards was on the cards.
Alas, it failed to materialise.
And here we are, four days into 2019 with little in the way of movement to report other than sideways.
Plenty will contest that sideways movement is a good thing.
Well, that would certainly be true if bitcoin was still worth the $6,500 it swaggered around at for much of 2018.
And, to be fair, it would be harsh to describe this sideways shuffle as a bad thing.
It is pretty much holding steady, albeit at a much lower level than most people were hoping for.
The deeper concern here is displayed if you draw a line across the graph of the last three months – from October 2018 to where we currently stand.
There can be no denying that represented there would be a downward trend.
Couple that with a relative lack of trading volume and it points to one conclusion in the eyes of many – people are simply losing interest.
Perhaps it is the festive hangover, perhaps it’s the cautious masses waiting for something more solid to happen in the markets? Lots of people will have lots of theories.
But perhaps it is the start of a new movement – a shift towards altcoins that may create a little more sport for investors who are now coming to realise their ticket to a Lamborghini perhaps doesn’t lie with bitcoin after all.
Since the Bitcoin Cash hard fork in November, something stirred in the markets that left Nakamoto’s creation with a mountain to climb.
Despite the constant denials of a deliberate act by those involved, that hard fork – which saw Bitcoin Cash split into Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV – triggered the volatility we continue to see.
The battles which ensued in the aftermath (various unseemly public spats between the likes of Vitalik Buterin, Roger Ver, Calvin Ayre and Dr Craig S Wright) have led to a shift in investor activity – the pattern of which is only now emerging.
Volume is heading towards the likes of Ethereum, Ripple (XRP) and to some extent the leftovers of Bitcoin Cash in a way that could see one of them mount a serious challenge to ailing bitcoin.
Bitcoin purists will, of course, tell you there could never really be a serious challenge and the battle will always be for second place.
But that spot is currently occupied by Ethereum which is experiencing a surge of support.
Quite what will become of that support over the next few weeks when we will see a series of forks from Ethereum is a matter for deliberation when it happens.
However, the momentum is undeniably there.
As is the support for Ethereum and its mastermind Vitalik Buterin.
The educated guess here for the opening days of 2019 is that the battle for the number two slot is over.
What we need to see from the end of January onwards is whether or not Ethereum has the strength to carry out an ascent.
Coin Rivet is a website bringing news, information, analysis, opinion and insight from the fast-moving blockchain world.