While many across the country will be hoping for a white Christmas this year, the areas expected to have some white on the ground will be restricted to the northern tier of the country, and in the higher elevations of the West.
The standard for a white Christmas is an inch of snow on the ground during the morning, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
The regions most likely to have a blanket of snow on the ground this Christmas include, the Northeast, the Upper Midwest and the mountains of the West.
Northeast
With a lack of arctic air across much of the country this December, the likelihood of a white Christmas really comes down to the storm systems on Christmas Eve.
This is especially true for the Northeast, where many places like Boston and Pittsburgh have been as much as 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal for the second half of the month.
However, snow falling Sunday night and into Christmas Eve will bring snow from the Great Lakes into the Northeast.
“A clipper system is forecast to race from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Coast into Monday,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff.
This will bring a swath of light snow accumulation from northern Michigan to Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Duff said.
Across much of the region receiving this snow, accumulations are expected to be light, with only an inch or two of accumulation. The exception will be some of the higher elevations and downwind of several of the Great Lakes.
“Snow showers and even a few heavier squalls will continue downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario on Monday and Monday evening,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Steve Travis.
This is the region most likely to have several inches of snow, helping to ensure a white Christmas in parts of western and central New York.
For the rest of the Northeast, the determination of if this year’s Christmas will have a blanket of snow is determined by how quickly the snow melts before Tuesday morning.
Places across Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley and southern New England are expected to have high temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s for a time on Monday. Temperatures this high could melt the little bit of snow accumulated on the ground, or bring the amount of snow below an inch.
The spine of the Appalachian Mountains from western Pennsylvania to North Carolina had a little snow on the ground as of Sunday. The light snow accumulation ahead of Christmas may be enough to combat any warmer air and melting on Christmas Eve.
Upper Midwest
As of Sunday, a few inches of snow continued to blanket the ground across eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and through Michigan’s Upper Peninsula and northern parts of the Lower Peninsula.
With the fresh coating of snow in these areas over the weekend, plus the reinforcing shot of cold air, most of this snow is expected to stick around into Christmas Day.
“A weak storm system moving into Iowa on Christmas Eve night could bring a little snow to Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois right before the holiday,” said Travis.
It is possible that this snow could reach an inch of accumulation in some spots, and it is likely that it remains cold enough into Christmas morning for any of this snow to remain early in the day; however, temperatures are expected to quickly rise above freezing, and by midday, areas without much of a snow depth could be left with a green Christmas afternoon.
With no snow on the ground across Nebraska and through the central Plains, and mild temperatures expected to continue through the holiday, a white Christmas is not expected across the rest of the Plains.
Mountainous West
The higher elevations of the West, from Colorado to Washington and California, boast the best chances for a white Christmas.
“Most of the snow will already be on the ground prior to Christmas Day in the West, with just a few exceptions,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
A moderate snow depth was already in place as of Sunday across the Rockies from western Colorado to Idaho and western Montana, as well as in the Sierras and across the Cascades of Oregon and Washington.
“A storm system will dive southward on Christmas Eve afternoon and night, spreading rain and snow from southern Oregon and Northern California into Nevada,” said Sosnowski.
This snow will bring a fresh blanket of snow for the mountainous areas that already have several inches of snow on the ground. But this could also bring some snow to the lower terrain across eastern Oregon and much of Nevada.
A push of cold air following the storm is likely to keep any accumulations around into Christmas Day.
As this storm moves farther east, it is likely to bring a little snow into Utah and parts of Arizona on Christmas Day. So, while areas such as Flagstaff might not start off Christmas Day with snow on the ground, it could turn into an unofficial white Christmas by the afternoon or evening.