Escalating tensions in the region have seen warplanes from the rival nations frequently scrambled to the skies above the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by both Tokyo and Beijing. But the increasing number of sorties in the area combined with the presence of China’s militarised coast guard has “substantially increased” the risk of a miscalculation which could spark a major crisis, a study by the RAND Corporation found. The major think tank warned that “fighter planes from both countries now routinely fly in close proximity to one another” over the islands which has raised the risk of forces firing on each other or of a mid-air collision.
And while the report said neither Tokyo or Beijing would benefit from such an incident escalating into full-blown war, it warned “the tense standoff carries a growing risk of miscalculation”.
The report says: “Given the state of tensions in the East China Sea, an accidental collision could quickly spiral into an uncontrollable crisis between the two countries.”
The uninhabited Senkaku Islands, which sit between the north coast of Taiwan and the Japanese Home Islands, are administered by Japan, but face rival claims from China and Taiwan.
The rocky outcrops have become the site of increasingly aggressive incursions by Chinese vessels in recent months as Beijing seeks to assert its dominance in the region.
And while the islands themselves are of little value, the strategic location in key waterways combined with the possibility of lucrative gas fields and fishing grounds nearby mean Japan is determined to defend them.
In response to the growing threat, the Japanese military is reportedly drawing up emergency battle plans to counter an invasion.
Japan is also preparing to equip its military with its first aircraft carrier since World War Two – along with dozens of US-made F-35 fighter jets.
Meanwhile, China is seeking “to overtake Japan as the dominant power in the region” against a backdrop of a “deepening
mutual distrust” with Japan, according to the RAND report.
It concludes: “While an unexpected crisis escalating to war is not in the interest of either country, the concentrated presence of military and paramilitary air and maritime platforms increases the risk of a miscalculation occurring.
“Careful management of this potential flashpoint will test the leadership and skills of Japan, the United States, and China in the coming years.”