The United Nation’s (UN) World Meteorological Organisation says there is a 75-80 percent chance that El Nino will be a “weak event” in the next couple of months. Unfortunately this means El Nino’s role as a natural buffer to the formation of huge storms will also be weakened. As a result, the natural weather phenomenon will lead to both serious droughts and serious flooding in early 2019 as climate patterns are thrown into chaos.
El Nino is responsible for warming ocean temperatures, which in turn leads to fewer major storms as it is more difficult for them to form over warmer seas.
However, with a weak El Nino predicted major weather systems will take advantage of the cooler ocean and could devastate the globe.
Maxx Dilley, director of the WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch, said: “The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world.
“Even so, it can still significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, with important consequences to agricultural and food security sectors, and for management of water resources and public health, and it may combine with long-term climate change to boost 2019 global temperatures.”
The 2016 event was the last El Nino on record, and in turn 2017, where there was no El Nino prior, turned out to be the hottest year on record.
This time it is back, but much weaker than in previous years which could lead to major flooding and droughts.
However, El Nino is just one meteorological aspect affecting the planet’s climate.
Climate change is increasing year-on-year, which is also disturbing global weather systems.
Met Office scientist Professor Adam Scaife said: “An El Niño can create wetter and windier conditions in the first half of winter and it can bring a colder and drier second half, but El Niño is just one factor and others will vie to affect our winter.
“For example, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation with its 14-month pattern of alternating easterly and westerly winds along the equator can weaken or strengthen the jet stream.”