Steve Hansen knew what he was doing when anointing Ireland as the world No 1 side, even if the official rankings have not done so, saying: “It’s their turn at the moment so we’ll see how they cope with that.” So far they are not doing a bad job, wasting no time in announcing that Andy Farrell will replace Joe Schmidt after next year’s World Cup, where a first ever last-four berth is the least they will be expecting. A second victory over the All Blacks in three matches was a tactical masterclass, served up by Schmidt and Farrell and carried out by their players with relentless intensity. And all without Conor Murray. They are favourites to defend the Six Nations title and, as both Hansen and Eddie Jones have said recently, they have the ideal domestic set-up for international success.
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2) New Zealand ▼ (1 place)
Far too early to say they are in decline, but four defeats in the past 18 months demonstrates they have slipped off their perch. With no matches until next summer the next six months will prove defining for Steve Hansen and his coaching staff. Tweaks rather than wholesale changes are required, but there can be no question that player migration to the northern hemisphere is hurting them. Now may be the time to accept that Beauden Barrett, for all his attacking talents, is a fullback playing out of position and that New Zealand need a fly-half in the mould of Johnny Sexton or Owen Farrell, capable of steering them through tight matches. Kieran Read will benefit from a long rest, for he was part of a back-row that looked sub-par this autumn, all the more so without Sam Cane. They are still the team to beat, but Ireland and South Africa have shown how that can be done.
3) Wales ▲ (1 place)
Warren Gatland may have been exaggerating when claiming that four wins from four this November ranks the same as a Six Nations grand slam, but Wales’s progress cannot be ignored any longer. Their three-point victory over Australia was hardly a classic but do not underestimate its significance after 13 successive defeats by the Wallabies. The development of strength in depth continues apace with Gareth Anscombe, in particular, now looking every inch an international fly-half. Such a shame to see Ellis Jenkins suffer a serious injury after shining at openside but if Sam Warburton the flanker is not missed, his leadership may well be come Japan. Alun Wyn Jones is totemic but needs support in that sense. Good to see George North looking dangerous again.
4) England ▲ (1 place)
Reasons for optimism after three wins from four, even if significant changes in personnel still feel as if they have come a little late. Jones says he wants around 800 caps in his starting XV next year but without recalling Mike Brown, Chris Robshaw and Dan Cole he is not going to get there and selecting any of those would feel like a step back now. Jones seems most pleased with his side’s first-half showing against New Zealand, but arguably the most instructive 40 minutes came in the second half against Australia. Yes, the Wallabies were woeful, but here were England seizing the initiative (they still seem most comfortable when being reactionary) and adopting a power game that will only be boosted by the Vunipola brothers. Having said that, it is a damning indictment that no tier one side is as reliant on one man as England are on Owen Farrell. Should injury strike their captain – he officially shares the title with Dylan Hartley but this is his team – England’s chances of success in Japan go down with him.
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5) South Africa ▼ (2 places)
Four matches this autumn, all decided by less than 10 points, with two wins and two defeats for the Springboks. There is no need for panic at this stage as the curtain comes down on Rassie Erasmus’s first year in charge, despite defeats by England and Wales. Faf de Klerk did not play in either match, for a start, and Erasmus goes into 2019 safe in the knowledge he has established his side as contenders again. There is, of course, next year’s Rugby Championship to get out of the way first, but at present they can look forward to their World Cup opener against New Zealand, having beaten them once and come within a whisker of doing so again over the summer. Not their fault, but it was one of the sour notes of the autumn that De Klerk was in the crowd at Twickenham, not on the pitch, and on the whole it still feels as if there is room for more clarity as to their selection policy.
6) Scotland ▲ (2 places)
A narrow defeat by South Africa and another loss in Cardiff ensures the optimism in the camp is tempered somewhat, but Scotland have exposed some new players to Test match intensity, chalked up an emphatic win against an albeit unprepared Fiji side, and edged past Argentina. John Barclay was missed in the back-row but what they would not give for a big scalp on the road – they go to Paris and Twickenham – during the Six Nations before heading to Japan. The backline is settled and stylish with Huw Jones growing in influence at outside-centre while Finn Russell remains their No 1 fly-half despite Adam Hastings’ emergence. Their World Cup match against Japan – the last match in Pool A – is shaping up to be decisive.
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7) Australia ◀ ▶ (no move)
This was Australia’s worst year since 1958, with nine defeats and only four wins, yet the nagging feeling remains that they have the talent and competitive nature to contend in Japan. If there was one moment of the autumn that exposed one of their long-term problems it was Farrell’s no-arms tackle on Izack Rodda. Farrell is one of the toughest tackling fly-halves around, but it is hard to imagine he would have been anything more than a speed bump if it were Nathan Sharpe or John Eales running at him, and the Wallabies have been crying out for a grizzled, granite lock or two for years. Will Skelton, currently at Saracens, would be welcomed back into the fold if rules on eligibility were relaxed and by the same token Sean McMahon, currently in Japan, would walk back into the squad. Michael Cheika moved heaven and earth to get the squad he wanted in 2015 and he should do so again next year.
8) France ▼ (2 places)
Another couple of steps back for France this autumn, and it is surely wishful thinking that they will get their act together in time to mount a serious challenge in Japan. Losing at home to Fiji, having drawn with Japan last autumn, is the sort of result that would have perhaps cost Jacques Brunel his job if the World Cup were not so close. Among the few positives, there at least seems to be a spine to their team in the shape of Louis Picamoles, Baptiste Serin and Camille Lopez, and while Gaël Fickou did not start against South Africa, surely he must do so from here on in. Still, the tactic of throwing the ball around inside their own 22 against Fiji demonstrates the lack of leadership within the side, and Sekou Macalou’s omission continues to baffle.
9) Fiji ▲ (1 place)
Provided the moment of the month when the whole squad gathered arm in arm to sing the gospel hymn We Have Overcome after a first ever win against France. That victory was another stark reminder of what the Pacific Island nations are capable of with time to prepare. Ben Ryan, who masterminded Fiji’s Olympic sevens gold medal in 2016, pointed out after the win that the squad will not assemble again for more than six months, demonstrating the hurdles they keep having to overcome. But they will have more time together in the lead-up to the World Cup and as a result Wales, and particularly Australia, will be looking over their shoulders in Pool D.
10) Argentina ▼ (1 place)
They never seem to fare well in the autumn, and while they were competitive, defeats by Ireland, France and Scotland are hardly anything to write home about and come after somehow throwing away a 31-7 lead against Australia. There have been improvements under Mario Ledesma certainly, and they have a habit of picking up in World Cup years, but while they can end their year on a high against the Barbarians at Twickenham on Saturday, they remain outsiders behind England and France to get out of their World Cup pool.
11) Japan ◀ ▶ (no move)
If only everyone played like Japan. To see them give England an almighty scare, then a couple of hours later to watch Ireland’s victory over the All Blacks, was almost like watching two different sports and you can only marvel at Japan’s skill levels when moving the ball at pace. Equally, you can only sit back and applaud their captain Michael Leitch and his inspirational qualities. In terms of results it has not been a great autumn, though – losing to a World XV, getting hammered by a second-string New Zealand, running out of steam against England and just squeezing past Russia last weekend. They have shown enough, though, to believe they can emerge from their World Cup pool – and they will certainly not die wondering.
12) USA ▲ (2 places)
They may have been denied a 10th straight win and an unbeaten 2018 by Ireland, but the USA are still going places under Gary Gold as their dramatic win over Samoa in San Sebastián attests. Will cause England, France and Argentina discomfort in Japan.
13) Italy ◀ ▶ (no move)
Blitzed by New Zealand and Ireland and comfortably beaten by a poor Australia side this autumn, but at least they overcame Georgia in a match where defeat would have been unthinkable for Conor O’Shea’s side. Hard to see anything but five defeats in the Six Nations.
14) Georgia ▲ (1 place)
A mixed bag, following defeat by Italy with morale-boosting wins over Tonga and Samoa. They are in with Australia, Wales and Fiji next year so finishing third in their pool again is a tough ask, even if none of that trio will relish playing them.
15) Tonga ▼ (3 places)
Their 50-point defeat against Wales was a case study in the difficulties facing tier two nations at present. They were level after 45 minutes but conceded an unanswered half-century thereafter in only their third match against tier one opposition in three years.
The rest
Canada booked the final spot in next year’s World Cup with victories over Kenya, Germany and Hong Kong in the repechage, taking their place in Pool B alongside New Zealand, South Africa, Italy and Namibia. Elsewhere, these are troubled times for Samoa, who suffered defeats by the USA and Georgia before overcoming Spain. Uruguay’s most eye-catching result was a 27-20 win over Romania, while Russia comprehensively defeated Namibia.