Germans head to the polls tomorrow (Sunday) in a local election in the western state of Hesse but recent polling suggests Ms Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is on track for humiliating losses.
And a poor performance by the CDU could spell the beginning of the end for the Chancellor’s shaky coalition government – and potentially trigger another general election.
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who was promoted to the CDU’s general secretary, has been tipped as the likely successor to Ms Merkel once she leaves office.
But Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer warned months of scandal and government quarrelling – which left the unstable coalition on the brink of collapse – have eroded voters’ trust.
She told The Times: “Germany is doing nicely, but the past few months of electioneering, the difficult process of forming a government and the wrangling within the government have all taken their toll.”
Ms Merkel’s ‘grand coalition’ government is made up of the CDU, its Bavarian sister party the CSU and the centre-left SPD – but all three have lost ground to opposition parties including the far-right AfD and the left wing Greens.
The alliance has been plagued with infighting ever since the coalition reluctantly formed in March after months of failed talks.
SPD members are now piling pressure on their own leaders to abandon the coalition and reinvent themselves.
But speaking at a campaign event in Frankfurt earlier this week, Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer said this could have major consequences in Berlin.
She said: “If this government were to break apart now, it would lead to new elections.”
Opinion polls suggest a snap election would probably hurt the centre-right CDU/CSU and SPD the most.
Ms Merkel has been weakened by her 2015 decision to let more than a million migrants into Germany and her coalition government has lurched from crisis to crisis in recent months.
Recent polling shows her conservatives are still the biggest party. But their support has fallen to 26-27 percent, meaning a coalition with the SPD may no longer have sufficient support.
Meanwhile, the environmentalist Greens, on 16-20 percent, have overtaken the SPD in most surveys.
And the anti-immigration AfD remain strong with 15-17 percent.
In tomorrow’s ballot in Hesse, both Merkel’s conservatives and the SPD are predicted to lose 10 percent of the vote compared to the last election in 2013.
The AfD is poised to enter the state legislature for the first time with 12 percent support, an October 25 poll conducted for broadcaster ZDF showed.