UK Property: House sale numbers fall in September as market braces for Brexit

In total, 98,400 residential transactions were recorded last month, compared to 101,100 in the same period of 2017.  

Overall, the number of properties sold this year seems to have withstood the Brexit-led headlines, as the seasonally adjusted number to date shows that there have been 883,830 residential transactions in the UK to the end of September.  

Whilst down on the same period last year, when the comparable figure was 920,740, this would perhaps suggest that, against a back drop of economic and political uncertainty, the market is standing its ground. 

Looking at the overall numbers, Mike Scott, chief property analyst at online estate agency Yopa commented: “HMRC’s numbers show house sales in September continue to be slightly behind the same time last year.  

“For the whole of 2018 to date, the total is down by 4.1 per cent compared with the same period in 2018. 

“We therefore expect the total number of house sales for 2018 to be a little under 1.2 million, behind the most recent four years which all saw a little over 1.2 million sales, but well ahead of the period after the credit crunch when it fell as low as 850,000 in 2009.”

Mike is also positive about the market for the rest of this year and next suggested that: “If anything, the trend is now slightly upwards. 

“The slowest month was March, which was affected by heavy snow and was nearly 10 per cent behind March 2017.

“Since then, the comparison with 2017 has improved, and 2019 is more likely to see a recovery in the number of houses sold than a further downturn.”

But why is the market still holding up if the capital and its commuter belt, which usually is the main contributor to the total number of transactions, have struggled for the last eighteen months or so?  

As Brian Murphy, Head of Lending for Mortgage Advice Bureau explained: “Whilst London and the South East have suffered of late, many regions around the UK continue to report very positive market conditions, such as the Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber, as well as Wales and Scotland.   

“As such, it’s likely that the level of transactions in these areas are somewhat making up for the lack of activity elsewhere in terms of the overall tally.”

However, looking forward, Jeremy Leaf former RICS residential chairman is circumspect, warning that much may depend on what is in Chancellor Hammond’s red box next Monday.

He said: “Transactions will always be a much better test of property market health than prices. These numbers show the patient to be in reasonable condition but still fairly weak so vulnerable to any unpleasant Budget medicine which may stall their recovery.” 

Jeremy continued: “On the ground, some buyers and sellers are cautiously coming to the market but in nowhere near the numbers hoped for or expected.  

“The content of the Budget, one way or the other, will make a difference to property market prospects for the rest of this year, as will the conclusion of the Brexit negotiations.”

With rumours swirling around what, if anything, the Chancellor may do to help kick-start a stagnating housing sector, it seems that it may not just be the autumn leaves which fall over the next couple of months.  

Unless there is a significant development next week, prices and transaction levels may drop off too in some parts of the UK in the lead up to Christmas.