Poll: Runoff is very possible in Mississippi Senate race

WASHINGTON — The free-for-all special Senate election in Mississippi has a strong chance of heading to a November 27 runoff, where appointed Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., would have early the advantage, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the state.

In the November 6 “jungle primary” — where multiple candidates, regardless of party, are competing — Republican Hyde-Smith gets support from 38 percent of likely voters, Democrat Mike Espy gets 29 percent, Republican Chris McDaniel gets 15 percent and Democrat Tobey Bartee gets 2 percent.

Fifteen percent say they’re undecided.

If no candidate surpasses 50 percent of the vote in that November 6 contest, then the Top 2 candidates advance to a runoff three weeks later, which could possibly decide control of the U.S. Senate if either party is short of a majority.

In a hypothetical November 27 runoff, Hyde-Smith leads Espy, a former congressman who was Bill Clinton’s Agriculture secretary, by 14 points among likely voters, 50 percent to 36 percent, the NBC/Marist poll finds; 13 percent are undecided.

But if the two candidates are Espy and McDaniel, who unsuccessfully challenged former GOP Sen. Thad Cochran in 2014, Espy is ahead by 7 points, 43 percent to 36 percent; 19 percent are undecided.

In March, Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant appointed Hyde-Smith to fill the Senate seat vacated by Cochran, whose retirement spurred this special election to serve the rest of his term. President Donald Trump endorsed Hyde-Smith in August, and he campaigned for her earlier this month.

Mississippi’s other Senate race in November — where there is no jungle primary — is clearer cut, with incumbent Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., leading Democratic challenger David Baria by nearly 30 points among likely voters, 60 percent to 32 percent.

Trump’s approval rating in Mississippi is 60 percent

The NBC/Marist poll shows that Mississippi remains a reliably Republican state, with 60 percent of likely voters approving of President Trump’s job performance, versus 35 percent who disapprove.

Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the state by 18 points in 2016.

What’s more, Republicans lead in congressional preference in Mississippi by 20 points among likely voters, with 56 percent saying they prefer the GOP to remain in charge of Congress, while 36 percent want Democrats in control.

By a 54 percent-to-38 percent margin, Mississippi voters say their vote in 2018 will be a message for more Republicans to help pass Trump’s agenda, instead of a message for more Democrats to serve as a “check and balance” on the president.

And by nearly 2-to-1, likely voters say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who supported Trump’s Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh (46 percent) than one who opposed him (24 percent).

That’s in sharp contrast to the recent NBC/Marist polls of Arizona, Minnesota and Nevada, where pluralities of voters in those states said they’d be more supportive of candidates who opposed Kavanaugh.

The NBC/Marist poll of Mississippi was conducted October 13-18 of 973 residents of Mississippi (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.4 percentage point), 885 registered voters (plus-minus 4.7 percentage points) and 511 likely voters (plus-minus 6.1 percentage points).