Sebastian Vettel may be approaching the Russian Grand Prix as simply another step in his title challenge yet, if that challenge is not to collapse around him, he cannot afford to put a single foot wrong when it matters this weekend in Sochi.
There is more at stake than maintaining pressure on Lewis Hamilton. Vettel badly needs to reassert himself to prove he has a credible chance of staying in the fight and ensuring he is in a position to take advantage should Hamilton fail to finish a race before the championship is decided.
Hamilton leads Vettel by 40 points on the back of four wins from the last five races and a series of errors that have punctuated Vettel’s season. The Ferrari driver can afford no more. Six races remain, enough for the German to take the title if he wins and Hamilton is second in all of them. It is an already unlikely scenario but for Vettel, who has enjoyed the quicker car since the mid-period of the season, the win he requires is needed as much to show he can still put Hamilton under the cosh as it is to keep the title arithmetic ticking over.
He insisted the championship is not yet lost but that he must perform to his full potential at the Sochi Autodrom. “You never know what happens but anything is possible,” he said. “I’m not aiming to win all six races. First of all, I’m aiming to win here, then once that’s done we go to the next one and the next one. I don’t think there’s much point looking five, six races ahead. I think you’re much better off staying in the moment at what lies in front of you.”
The first critical moment is qualifying. Last year Ferrari locked out the front row with Vettel on pole but he was beaten through turn two by Valtteri Bottas, who went on to win. It proved to be the vital pass. Indeed it was the only on-track pass of the meeting and similar overtaking difficulties are expected on Sunday.
The track in Sochi is low on tyre degradation and it will almost certainly be a one-stop race. Hamilton has suggested that the pace advantage required to pass will be up to 1.5 seconds – a gap unattainable with drivers on similar tyre strategies. Pole will be key and Ferrari are aware their driver has no breathing room. They have brought a major aero upgrade to Russia, including a revamped front wing. But they, too, have to execute ruthlessly. Failure to do so in qualifying at Monza and Singapore put Vettel on the back foot.
Vettel and the Scuderia have been found wanting but the German seems to be wearing the pressure well. He is aware that he can control only his performance but perhaps his greatest difficulty is that Hamilton will be making that task as hard as possible. Mercedes’ team principal, Toto Wolff, told how relentless Hamilton’s pursuit of the title remains. “He’s the only driver I’ve ever heard saying: ‘I haven’t driven well. First we have to look at my driving and then we look at the data.’ This constant drive for perfection happens every year,” Wolff noted.
Always strong in the second half of the season, the British driver has been in imperious form, buoyed by how well Mercedes have been performing of late. He referred to “the great rapport in the team, the effort that’s gone in” and “the results we have produced considering we have started weekends on the back foot or slightly behind, yet performed better over all”.
Vettel knows, then, that he must triumph in Russia while Hamilton, who has won at Sochi twice before, is aware he holds all the cards and can play the percentages. “The stakes are as high as they have ever been,” he said. “The money is in the middle of the table, every weekend is a gamble and the risks versus rewards you take means different things.” Vettel was quickest in first practice, with Hamilton in third.
In the afternoon session Hamilton and Bottas took a one-two, with Vettel in fifth but with Ferrari expected, as has been the case all season, to dial-in their car on Saturday morning.