Factors that will determine the destiny of the Formula One title

The difference maker

Lewis Hamilton leads Sebastian Vettel by 30 points going into the final seven races of the season, a somewhat unlikely advantage given the strength of Ferrari’s car and hence far from insurmountable. There are 175 points remaining and as things stand the Scuderia still hold the cards in performance. However the difference thus far has been Hamilton. He has proved time and again his ability to maximise the results from difficult situations and turn in impeccable runs when on top. Having been on the back foot– off the pace in Monaco, knocked back to 18th at Silverstone and starting from 14th in Germany – he ensured the damage was minimal, returning a third, second and win from the meetings. He has played the percentages with the calm confidence of a multiple world champion focused on the big picture. Continuing to do so will put all the pressure on Vettel. The Singapore GP will likely be a case in point. Mercedes expect to be behind Ferrari and Kimi Räikkönen was quickest in second practice in front of Hamilton, for whom limiting the points damage may already be paramount. Vettel however, simply must win.

Ferrari ahead of Mercedes

Mercedes knows they are still behind Ferrari in the development battle. The Scuderia enjoyed a straigh-tline speed advantage at the British Grand Prix, which Vettel won. Since then they have shown their power unit is stronger, particularly out of the corners and in qualifying. Vettel’s clash with Hamilton in Monza and Räikkönen’s blistering tyres prevented real comparisons of race pace in Italy but Mercedes believe Ferrari are still ahead. The team principal, Toto Wolff, has said they need to “turn the factories in Brixworth and Brackley upside down to extract performance”. An aero upgrade is expected before the end of the season but they have used their three power unit allocations. Should they need to employ a fourth specification engine to take the fight back to Ferrari it will come with penalties. The team thus need to bring everything they can to keep up without having to endure a start from the back of the grid.

Bottas can play vital role

In the car Hamilton has been almost entirely in control, Mercedes must match him on the pit wall and with not a little steel. The team have made two key strategy errors this season: a software miscalculation in Australia and not pitting under the VSC in Austria. But Mercedes’ decision to keep Hamilton’s team-mate, Valtteri Bottas, out in Baku proved inspired and in the last round their race direction was superb. Bottas was going long anyway at Monza but Mercedes then used the 29-year-old Finn’s position to slow Ferrari’s Räikkönen, to Hamilton’s advantage. The team will certainly need to show similar astute judgment and ruthlessness on the run-in. The team said it would consider switching Bottas to a support role for Hamilton after Monza and Wolff has admitted he is not confident Hamilton has enough of a margin.

Vettel must take priority

That Ferrari must put their weight behind one driver seems cut and dried. The team, who have employed team orders to notorious effect in the past, must now ensure every opportunity is given to Vettel. Räikkönen is still mathematically in with a chance but realistically the Finn’s prospects need to be sacrificed. Thus far the Scuderia have been insistent their drivers could race but it has been costly. In Germany they were unusually circumspect in telling Räikkönen to move over for Vettel. While at Monza allowing Räikkönen the tow from Vettel in qualifying because it was his turn was admirable, it ultimately proved detrimental to the German. Vettel has said he does not want team orders to aid his title challenge but he is the only driver in a position to deny Hamilton and if Ferrari are to take the championship everything, including Räikkönen, must cede to Vettel’s shot.

Flawless finish required

Ferrari could not match Mercedes’ development at this stage last season, now they are ahead. That Vettel does not have a lead can partly be attributed to the four errors he has made. Small moments of misjudgment cost him in Baku, France and Germany. At Monza, albeit with a loss of downforce from his proximity to Räikkönen and an understeering car, he was still culpable in hitting Hamilton. He did well to recover to fourth but it was points dropped. In Singapore last year a misjudgment off the grid caused the accident that took him out of the race and gave Hamilton an unlikely win – a turning point from which there was no recovery. Going into that race Hamilton’s lead was only three points rather than 30, a similar mistake leading to a DNF now could put an end to Vettel’s hopes in short order. He has repeatedly proved he can extract the most from his car and at times has looked untouchable, particularly the wins in Canada, Britain and Belgium. Yet to take the title he must be flawless from now until the end of the season, as he acknowledged on Thursday in Singapore: “The biggest enemy is me.” Of which he was harshly reminded in FP2, after hitting the wall and taking radiator damage that ended his session.

Quick guide

Vettel crashes in Singapore practice

Sebastien Vettel collided with a wall during second practice for the Singapore Grand Prix at Marina Bay. The Ferrari finished ninth after running wide at the final chicane, sustaining damage to his car and missing most of the 90-minute session.

Vettel’s departing Ferrari teammate, Kimi Räikkönen, finished fastest – just 0.011 seconds ahead of Lewis Hamilton. Mercedes have struggled on this street circuit in recent seasons but after finishing sixth in the first session, the championship leader will be encouraged by his improvement in the second.

Red Bull had been fastest in the first session, but Max Verstappen finished third later in the day ahead of his team-mate Daniel Ricciardo. Valtteri Bottas finished fifth for Mercedes, while Vettel’s next Ferrari team-mate, Charles Leclerc, also hit a wall and finished 14th.

Photograph: Charles Coates/Getty Images AsiaPac
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