Lynchburg dam failure: Why could the Virginia dam fail – will it burst?

The College Lake Dam near Lynchburg could potentially burst, with the threat of up to 17 feet of water flooding parts of the Central City. 

Several parts of the city including those near the Black Creek Trail area have been evacuated due to concerns over the dam. 

Residents were told to leave their homes on Thursday evening. 

An evacuation area has been opened by the Lynchburg Sheriff’s Office, and those not under evacuation orders have been advised to seek out high ground. 

Close to the University of Lynchburg, the city has a population of 80,000. 

Lynchburg is the closest city to the dam and lies in the Blue Ridge Mountains. 

Why would the dam fail? 

Virginia has seen heavy rains over the past few days, and these have raised water levels inside the dam. 

The central Virginia city has been hammered by heavy rains and failure of the dam would see the city flooded with 17 feet (5 metres) of water in just seven minutes.

This would cause significant damage to homes and businesses.

Lynchburg Dam began to reach beyond capacity on Thursday evening local time (early morning Friday BST) when according to the National Weather Service (NWS), the Lynchburg Water Resources Department recorded four to six inches of rain. 

The NWS said that county officials reported the dam’s “imminent failure” at around 9.30pm (2.30am BST).

The NWS said: “The Lynchburg Water Resources Department reported that 4 to 6 inches of heavy rain earlier this evening has caused College Lake to fill beyond its capacity and that 12 to 18 inches of water are flowing over Lakeside Drive into Blackwater Creek.

“At this time, the dam has not failed and is being closely monitored by emergency personnel for any signs of structural failure.

“Flood waters entering Blackwater Creek from College Lake will continue into Ivy Creek before entering the James River.”

Flash flood warnings have been issued for the Atlanta area, as well as for the East Coast from northern Georgia to central Pennsylvania. 

Roads have also been closed, with Route 460 at the Campbell County/Bedford road “impassible” according to local news service WLNI. 

WLNI also reports that numerous trees and power lines have been downed as a result of rain and floods. 

AccuWeather meteorologist Brett Rathbun said: “Lynchburg has received 1.35” of rain so far on Thursday and 1.64” so far this month.

“Three to six inches of rain has fallen across the area since Sunday afternoon with the heaviest falling in the towns of Timberlake and Forest.

“More rain is expected across the area through Friday which can keep the dam failure risk high.”